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Grading Our 2010 NFL Draft Predictions

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We originally posted an article with 10 bold predictions for the 2010 NFL draft.  Some came to fruition and some, ehh, not so much.

Our 10 Bold Predictions

1. Florida QB Tim Tebow will be drafted in the first round.

True: The Broncos traded back into the first round to select Tebow at #25 overall.

2. Oklahoma’s Trent Williams, not Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung, will be the first offensive tackle off of the board.

True: This prediction was a little more ‘bold’ at the time we made it.  Williams gained steam in the final days leading up to the draft.

3.  Texas QB Colt McCoy will get picked no later than the 38th overall selection.

Not even close: McCoy lasted until the 85th selection to the Cleveland Browns.  We really thought teams would be more interested in his accuracy, but Jimmy Clausen’s fall probably hurt McCoy as well.

We did get one part of the prediction correct.  In the article, we said, “Who selects at that spot?  The Cleveland Browns.  Expect the new head honcho Mike Holmgren to select McCoy–perhaps the most accurate quarterback in this class–to run his West Coast offense.”

4.  Virginia Tech DE Jason Worilds will go to a 3-4 team in the mid-second round.

True: We had a feeling many of you had never heard of Worilds, but he was certainly on the radar of 3-4 teams.  He got selected by Pittsburgh, a 3-4 team, with the 20th pick in the second round.

5.  No tight end will be selected in the entire first round.

False: We didn’t believe the reports of Jermaine Gresham to the Bengals.  We obviously should have.

6.  Dallas will trade at least one player on the current roster on draft day.

False: It sure was close, though.  The Cowboys were actively shopping a variety of players, particularly Patrick Crayton and Sam Hurd after the selection of Dez Bryant.

We still believe the Cowboys would trade either of those players for next-to-nothing, so a post-draft trade is not out of the question.

7.  The Cowboys will not select at pick#27–they will either move up or back.

True: The Cowboys shrewdly moved up three spots to grab Dez Bryant.

8.  Dallas will make an inordinate number of trades–even more than last season.

Borderline: The Cowboys traded before each of their first three selections, but then not again for the rest of the draft.  Three trades is certainly above-average, but by no means “inordinate.”

9.  R. Okung, B. Bulaga, T. Williams, A. Davis, B. CampbellC. Brown, E. Berry, E. ThomasM. Iupati, and M. Pouncey will all be selected before the 27th pick.

False: In hindsight, this prediction was just dumb.  There were simply too many talented players on the board for this to happen.  All but two of the players did get drafted by the time the Steelers picked at #18 overall, but Campbell and Brown took a dive which no one could have accurately forecast.

10.  The Cowboys will not address either left tackle or safety with their first selection.

True: We were going to take this a step further and claim they wouldn’t address either position with their first two selections, but it seemed a bit too daring.

Overall, we were 5/10 in our predictions–not too shabby for them being (at least somewhat) bold.

What do you think of our predictions?  Did we do a good job?  Which one was the dumbest?

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3 Responses to Grading Our 2010 NFL Draft Predictions

  1. David Mark says:

    Ha, I would say the outcome of your bold predictions was basically as good as flipping a coin :-), but in fact you did was better than I did (perhaps I should’ve flipped a coin).

    But truth is, I don’t care how accurate you are at predicting which players will be picked by which team & where. That assumes NFL teams are led by rational actors who are very good at picking talent. I don’t think that’s true at all. How many of these “can’t miss” future stars are ultimately going to be a bust? Historically, more than a few. And how many “under the radar” late draft picks/UFAs are going to end up being stars, All-Pros, maybe in the Hall of Fame? Again, more than a few.

    Because you base your opinions on logical, data-supported hypotheses, I think you are probably a better judge of talent, in terms of who actually will be a NFL star, than half the GMs in the league. At least that’s outcome I’m looking for from your predictions. My guess is the teams whose picks largely reflected your board will be very happy with this draft a year or so from now. IMHO.

  2. David Mark says:

    I guess to summarize: given a multiple-choice question, which is more important? Guess the right answer? Or guess what the guy next to you will think is the right answer? Partly because your success rate with the latter was only 50-50, perhaps you should focus on the former. The former is more useful anyway. But again, that’s just what I’m thinking.

  3. Pingback: 2009 Bold Preseason Predictions Revisited (Fantasy and "Real" Football--whatever that is) | Dallas Cowboys Times

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