2009 Bold Preseason Predictions Revisited (Fantasy and “Real” Football–whatever that is)
It is a bit of a slow day and I just came across my preseason list of bold predictions (related to both real and fantasy football), so I thought I’d share. Although same make me shake my head, I think I did fairly well overall, particularly on the overall standings (I predicted 10 of 12 playoff teams correctly and was within one game of the final record for 19 of the 32 teams).
When you combine this with my pre-draft predictions, I have had a decent eight months or so in terms of my forecasts.
2009 Bold Fantasy Football Predictions
1. Aaron Rodgers will lead all quarterbacks in points.
TRUE. Rodgers finished with 317 fantasy points–13 more than Brees and 31 more than P. Manning.
2. If Matt Schaub stays healthy, he will be a top 3 fantasy QB in all formats
TRUE/FALSE. Schaub finished fifth in my league, but the top three in some which reward more points for passing yards–all despite not being in top 10 of most preseason boards.
3. Chad Henne will be starting by week 8.
4. Philip Rivers will have more points than Peyton Manning.
FALSE. Rivers had 20 less points than Manning.
5. David Garrard will have more fantasy points as Matt Hasselbeck.
TRUE. Garrard never puts up huge numbers, but gets undervalued year after year.
1. Steven Jackson will lead the league in points.
FALSE. Jackson finished 7th in points in my league.
2. None of the three following backs will be in the top 15 at their position: Michael Turner, Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook.
TRUE. This was probably my most specific and bold prediction, and I nailed it. Turner finished 28th, and Portis and Westbrook didn’t crack the top 50.
3. Kevin Smith and Ronnie Brown will be top 10 running backs.
NOT EVEN CLOSE. Both guys got injured. Brown would have had a great shot, but Smith was probably more of a top 15 running back before going down.
4. Ray Rice will score more points than Brandon Jacobs, who will not even be in the top 20.
TRUE. This may look obvious now, but it wasn’t at the time. Jacobs finished 31st among running backs. Rice finished fourth.
5. Leon Washington will score more points than teammate Thomas Jones.
NOT EVEN CLOSE. Looking back, it was my worst prediction of the year.
6. Knowshon Moreno will score more points than Brian Westbrook.
TRUE, even though Knowshon wasn’t great.
7. Despite the presence of Marion Barber, Felix Jones will score double-digit TDs.
FALSE. Hey, even I get Cowboys-related predictions wrong. Jones only scored three TDs.
1. Greg Jennings will score more fantasy points than all but three wide receivers.
NOT EVEN CLOSE. I was right on Rodgers–I just thought his passes would go elsewhere.
2. Vincent Jackson will have more points than T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Anquan Boldin.
TRUE. Again, another prediction which may seem obvious now, but was fairly bold at the time.
3. Three super-sleepers who could surprise people are Laurent Robinson, Louis Murphy, and Sammie Stroughter.
IFFY. Robinson was a stud before an early season-ending injury. Murphy and Strougther both exceeded expectations for 4th and 7th rd picks, but were not really fantasy factors (except in my Keeper league, where I have both of them).
1. Jason Witten will catch nearly 100 balls.
TRUE. Despite a slow start, Witten ended the regular season with 94 catches.
2. Greg Olsen and Dustin Keller will score more points than Dallas Clark and Chris Cooley.
HALF RIGHT, HALF TOTALLY WRONG.
3. Vernon Davis will have a breakout year with over 70 receptions.
TRUE. Davis actually had 78 grabs and 13 TDs.
FINAL SEASON STANDINGS PREDICTIONS
I correctly predicted all six NFC playoff teams and had each division almost exactly correct. In the AFC, I predicted four of the six playoff teams. With the exception of being down on Indianapolis (woops!), I did not miss any team’s final record by more than three games. I predicted six exactly (not much of an accomplishment), but I was within one game on 19 of the 32 teams.
1. Philadelphia 12-4 (off 1 game)
2. Dallas 11-5 (correct)
3. New York 9-7 (off 1 game)
4. Washington 6-10 (off 2 games)
1. Green Bay 11-5 (correct)
2. Minnesota 10-6 (off 2 games)
3. Chicago 9-7 (off 2 games)
4. Detroit 5-11 (off 3 games)
1. New Orleans 10-6 (off 3 games)
2. Atlanta 10-6 (off 1 game)
3. Carolina 7-9 (off 1 game)
4. Tampa Bay 3-13 (correct)
1. Arizona 9-7 (off 1 game)
2. Seattle 8-8 (off 3 games)
3. San Fran 7-9 (off 1 game)
4. St. Louis 4-12 (off 3 games)
1. New England 13-3 (off by 3 games)
2. New York 9-7 (correct)
3. Miami 7-9 (correct)
4. Buffalo 5-11 (off by 1 game)
1. Pittsburgh 12-4 (off by 3 games)
2. Baltimore 9-7 (correct)
3. Cincinnati 8-8 (off by 2 games)
4. Cleveland 4-12 (off by 1 game)
1. Houston 10-6 (off by 1 game)
2. Indianapolis 10-6 (off by 4 games)
3. Tennessee 9-7 (off by 1 game)
4. Jacksonville 5-11 (off by 2 games)
1. San Diego 10-6 (off by 3 games)
2. Denver 7-9 (off by 1 game)
3. Oakland 4-12 (off by 1 game)
4. Kansas City 3-13 (off by 1 game)
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
New Olreans over Minnesota
Dallas over Arizona
Dallas over Philadelphia
New Orleans over Green Bay
New Orleans over Dallas
1. New England
4. San Diego
6. New York
Houston over New York
San Diego over Indianapolis
New England over San Diego
Pittsburgh over Houston
New England over Pittsburgh
Super Bowl: New Orleans over New England