Cowboys Play-calling Following Big Gains: Time to Strike?
By Jonathan Bales
I’ve always believed one of the best times to strike on offense is immediately following a big play. The defense is already reeling and the opposing defensive coordinator is more likely to call a blitz to “make up” for the prior play. What better time to call a play-action pass, for example?
There is another school of thought on the matter, however, which emphasizes a safer approach. This could allow a running back or wide receiver to catch his breath, assuming he is still in the game. Running the ball is also a more effective way to allow an offense to utilize its strength against a tired defense.
Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett certainly falls in the latter group. I took a look at the Cowboys “big plays” in 2009–those of 20+ yards. On the following play, Garrett called a run 43 out of 63 opportunities (68.3 %).
However, to my surprise, the Cowboys actually were far more successful on these runs than the 20 passes, averaging 5.77 yards-per-rush compared to just 4.70 yards-per-attempt. It is also worth noting that Garrett dialed up a play-action pass on five of these pass attempts, although none went for big yardage.
In any event, kudos to Garrett for apparently making the right decision on plays following big gains. While the sample size of 63 plays isn’t completely significant and I still believe there are opportunities to strike down-field in these situations, Garrett obviously made intelligent decisions on these first down plays–many of which led to another first down or a very manageable second and short.
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