Fantasy Football Mailbag 6/29/10: Wide Receivers in Rounds One AND Two?
Q: You said 2010 is the year to draft a quarterback in the first round. Which players would you select ahead of the No. 1 QB? Would you still pick a quarterback that high in leagues that reward a point per reception?
Mark Clancy, Warren, MI
A: There are currently only four players I would select ahead of my top-rated quarterback (Aaron Rodgers)–Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, and Maurice Jones-Drew (in that order).
Incredibly, the numbers work out in this way whether the league is PPR (point-per-reception) or not. Also, this is only for leagues that start one quarterback. In two quarterback leagues, I might think about taking Rodgers as high as the second overall selection.
You can read more about why I will be selecting quarterbacks so high in 2010.
Q: I have the last selection in a 12-man redraft league that rewards a point for receptions (standard starting requirements). I am expecting the top running backs, a few of the top receivers, and one or two quarterbacks to be off the board. Who would you suggest taking?
Bruce Pelligrini, Doylestown, PA
A: It really depends on which direction you see the other owners going in rounds two and three. If you expect there to be a run on quarterbacks, you may want to be sure to grab a top signal-caller early (either Rodgers, Brees, or Manning should be available).
If you think the other owners will select primarily running backs and wide receivers in rounds two and three, I would bypass the quarterback position and select two stud wide receivers. Two players out of this group should be available: Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Miles Austin.
I had a ton of success going WR/WR with a late draft pick last year. The VORP (explained here) adds up in your favor, and with the nature of the running backs position changing and the stud RBs off the board, it makes sense. Wide receivers, while inconsistent from week to week, are generally fairly consistent over the course of a season.
Plus, you can get a quarterback of comparable value to Brees or Manning at the end of the third/start of the fourth. I currently have Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, and Jay Cutler all in that same tier. Here’s a post on how to use tiers to gain maximum value.
Again, you must use game theory to determine what will be available for you later (here is an excellent article on how to use your opponents’ beliefs in your favor), but I would most likely go WR-WR-QB-RB. Be sure to stack up on running backs in the middle rounds, of course.
Q: I am in a 12-man dynasty league (standard scoring/starters) and have been offered Reggie Wayne for Jamaal Charles. I know Charles has a lot of upside, but Wayne is a sure thing. Should I pull the trigger?
Troy Barnett, Dallas, TX
A: It really depends on the rest of your roster. Are you loaded at the running back position? If you have a replacement player of comparable value to Charles, then it might be in your best interest to make the trade.
Ultimately, the math has to work out in your favor. Here’s how to use mathematics to ensure you are receiving good value in a fantasy football trade.
Of course, the fact that you are in a dynasty league complicates matters. Charles is obviously the better long-term player, so the numbers really have to work out for you to make the deal.
Be sure to check out our 2010 Fantasy Football Subscription! You’ll receive my personal projections/rankings, cheat sheets, players to target/avoid, mock drafts, and more.