Should the Cowboys Run More on 3rd Down?
By Jonathan Bales
I’ve spent some time talking about Jason Garrett’s 3rd down play-calls in the past, but only as they relate to the previous play. I found that, unlike during his 2nd down play-calling, Garrett is actually rather unpredictable on 3rd down (that’s a good thing, of course).
In a recent post on why the Cowboys should pass out of “running” formations (and also in one on why teams should attempt a lot more 4th down plays), I spoke briefly about run/pass efficiency on 3rd down. In short, NFL offenses fair much better when running the ball on 3rd and short (particularly 3rd and 1-3, but up until 3rd and 5). Incredibly, running the ball is just as effective as passing up through 3rd and 10. You can click the link above to read more about why this is so and view a graph displaying the conversion rates.
Nonetheless, I wanted to compare the Cowboys’ 2009 results with the league-wide numbers. How effective was the offense when they ran the ball in “obvious” passing situations? Note that these results (left) may be (very slightly) off from the numbers of Stats, Inc. or other unofficial stats companies because I did not use the televised ‘down and distance.’ For example, the televised version of a game may have mislabeled a play as ‘3rd and 1’ when it was really closer to ‘3rd and 2,’ and I have corrected for these mistakes to the best of my ability.
Notice the Cowboys’ yards-per-carry steadily rose (other than on 3rd and 6) as the yards-to-go increased. This is obviously due to personnel and the game situation. A defense which has substituted dime personnel on a 3rd and 10 is much more likely to yield a significant gain on the ground. Of course, the yards-per-carry means nothing if the Cowboys are not achieving first downs.
The chart to the right displays the conversion rate of all Cowboys’ 3rd down plays (of 10 or less yards-to-go) in 2009. As you can see, the Cowboys were more efficient on 3rd and 1 or 2 when running the ball. They converted 17/21 (81.0%) plays in these situations, compared to only 7/11 (63.6%) when passing.
As the distance-to-go increased, however, the conversion rate on runs dropped. The Cowboys converted zero 3rd downs when running the ball with 8+ yards to go (although they attempted just four).
Interestingly, the conversion rate of 3rd down passes remained relatively stable, regardless of the distance-to-go. You can see a very slight drop in the Cowboys’ 3rd down passing efficiency, but for the most part, the conversion rate was flat. This is probably due more so to the team’s success in 3rd and long situations rather than an inability to convert on 3rd and short (when passing).
I give offensive coordinator Jason Garrett a lot of flack, but his 3rd down play-calling is generally outstanding. I’d still love to see him run more on 3rd and medium (the ‘Boys ran just seven times on 3rd and 3-6 all season, compared to 42 passes). Of course one would expect more passes in this range, but a slight increase in “surprise” runs would be in-tune with league-wide 3rd down conversion rates and could perhaps significantly aid the offense.
And this really has nothing to do with anything I just wrote, but Tashard Choice was at a waterpark today with his family. . .