The DC Times

A New Way to Look at the Cowboys, NFL, and Fantasy Football

By Jonathan Bales

2010 Fantasy Football: 21 (Very) Bold Predictions

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Jonathan Bales

Last year, I made some rather bold preseason fantasy football predictions.  I actually did fairly well.  These may not seem outrageous now, but they were pretty “out there” at the time.  Some of my better 2009 predictions were:

  • Aaron Rodgers would lead the NFL in fantasy points.
  • Michael Turner, Clinton Portis, and Brian Westbrook would not be top 15 running backs.
  • Ray Rice would score more points than Brandon Jacobs, who wouldn’t be a top 20 running back.
  • Laurent Robinson, Sammie Stroughter, and Louis Murphy would be super-sleepers at wide receiver.
  • Jason Witten would approach 100 receptions.
  • Vernon Davis would have a breakout season with 70+ receptions.

Below are my bold fantasy football predictions for this year.  Use them if you’d like, and if not, hey, whatever, I’m only like the six-time reigning champ of the JBFFL (Jonathan Bales Fantasy Football League).  No biggie.

*Note: These predictions are for point-per-reception leagues.

QB

1.  Aaron Rodgers will lead all quarterbacks in fantasy points by a wide margin–50 or so.

2.  Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, and Jay Cutler will all score more fantasy points than Peyton Manning.

3.  David Garrard will score more fantasy points than Kevin Kolb, Brett Favre, Carson Palmer, and Donovan McNabb.  Yes, Brett James Favre.  And no, I don’t know if his middle name is ‘James,’ but it could be.

4.  So will Jason Campbell.

5. Despite impressive rookie seasons, neither Mark Sanchez nor Matthew Stafford will crack the top 20 in fantasy points.  Yes, I mean among quarterbacks only.

Super Sleeper: Michael Vick

RB

1. Rashard Mendenhall and Knowshon Moreno will outscore DeAngelo Williams by 40+ points.

2. Despite being labeled a ‘bust,’ Reggie Bush will be a top 15 running back.  He’s got top 10 potential.

3.  Matt Forte, Ryan Grant, and Michael Turner won’t crack the top 15, but Grant and Turner will both be in the top 10 in rushing yards.

4.  Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, Jonathan Stewart, and Brandon Jacobs won’t crack the top 25.  Amazingly, Benson will still be in the top six in the NFL in rushing yards.  Holy crap that is a specific prediction.

5.  Shonn Greene won’t crack the top 30.  You heard it here.

Note:  Prediction not valid if Shonn Greene scores in the top 30 in fantasy points among running backs.

6.  Felix Jones has high expectations in Dallas, but he still won’t be a top 20 fantasy running back.

7.  There will be 11 running backs with 50+ receptions.

Super Sleepers: Tashard Choice, Rashad Jennings, Dexter McCluster, Montario Hardesty (in dynasty leagues)

WR

1. Andre Johnson will finish 30+ points ahead of any other receiver.

2.  Steve Smith (NYG) will be a top six receiver.  The “other” Steve Smith (CAR) won’t be in the top 20.

3.  Buy into the hype on Mike Wallace.  He’s going to have over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns.

4.  Wes Welker is fine.  Expect a top 10 season.

5.  He might be the most talented receiver in the league (or at least second), but Larry Fitzgerald won’t be in the top 10 in fantasy points.

Super Sleepers: Emmanuel Sanders, Jason Avant, Jacoby Jones, Brian Robiskie, Laurent Robinson (again)

TE

1.  Brent Celek will be a top three tight end and score more points than Dallas Clark.

2. Call me crazy, but I think Zach Miller will score more fantasy points than Jason Witten (assuming your league doesn’t award points for being a kickass blocker).

3.  Tony Gonzalez can’t keep it up much longer. . .he’ll be lucky to crack the top 10 in points among tight ends.

4.  Visanthe Shiancoe will score less points than Heath Miller.

Super Sleepers: Tony Moeaki, Aaron Hernandez

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15 Responses to 2010 Fantasy Football: 21 (Very) Bold Predictions

  1. nathan says:

    Brett Favres middle name is Lorenzo, and I agree that rodgers will lead the quarterbacks in fantasy points, but I also guarantee that Favre will be top 5. I also think carson palmer probably cracks into the top 7.

  2. I know Favre’s middle name…poor attempt at a poor joke haha

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  4. saints says:

    Are you kidding me? If Drew Brees isn’t the top qb, then he’ll be right behind Rodgers. Favre will not do better than rodgers or brees.

  5. chris stallcup says:

    i got offered C.J. Spiller (RB – BUF)
    Joseph Addai (RB – IND)
    Braylon Edwards (WR – NYJ) for shonn greene, i dont think this is a worthwhile trade but would like to hear your opinion

  6. Is this a PPR league and what are your starting requirements? I personally would pull the trigger no matter what, but it is automatic in PPR. Greene doesn’t catch thing and Spiller could easily have 40+ catches.

    The deeper the league, the better this trade seems. If you only start 2 RB and 2 WR with no flex in a non-PPR scoring system, however, then it doesn’t seem as good.

  7. chris stallcup says:

    it is a ppr league and starting requirements are 2rbs, 3wrs, 1te.
    this is my roster
    Matt Schaub QB- HOU
    Maurice Jones-Drew RB- JAC
    Shonn Greene RB- NYJ
    Roddy White WR- ATL
    Mike Sims-Walker WR- JAC
    Malcom Floyd WR- SD
    Antonio Gates TE- SD
    Derrick Mason WR- BAL
    Felix Jones RB- DAL
    Ahmad Bradshaw RB- NYG
    Tim Hightower RB- ARI
    Darren Sproles RB- SD
    Donovan McNabb QB- WAS

    if i do the trade i would have to drop two players which would probably be hightower and mason

  8. I did a short article on how to maximize value in trade. It is dependent on your personal projections for each player. The problem is that you would drop Hightower. He is a nice option in PPR leagues, particularly during bye weeks.

    Take the projections you have for each player and use the formula (listed on the table) that I talk about in this article: http://dallascowboystimes.com/2010/05/fantasy-football-the-anatomy-of-a-trade/

    Follow the numbers, and you’ll win more often than not.

  9. chris stallcup says:

    ok thx for the tip, i forgot abt the article haha

  10. No problem..I’m low on Greene so I’d make the move, but it really depends on your personal thoughts. If you like him a lot, it’s tough to make the move. He will certainly get a lot of touches, but I think the Addai/Spiller combo is at least as valuable in PPR.

  11. Chris stallcup says:

    I did tHe move bc I’m not that fond of Greene, it was just hard to decide who to drop but thanks :D

  12. No problem. . .good luck this year.

  13. Rob says:

    Okay – I am hurting in a ppr league for #2 Reciver- 10 team league-1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 W/R and 1 W/T K, D/ST w/ 8 on bench
    My Roster
    QB – Eli
    WR – AJ, Garcon, Mike Thomas, Hines Ward, Naanee and Mike Williams (Seattle)
    RB – AP, Best, Mathews, J Charles, Moreno and Scott
    TE – Shianco

    I feel pretty good at RB – Should I seek a trade for Knox & Spiller for Moreno & Garcon?

    And Eli is not doing it for me. Looking at my roster who should I offer to try and get Cutler?

    Help!

  14. No…Knox/Spiller is not a better combo than Moreno/Garcon at all. I would find the most RB-needy teams in your league and offer a two for 1…two solid RBs, like Moreno and Mathews, for a top RB…they should like the depth that provides them and you will be fine at RB.

    It may be a bad time to trade for Cutler since his value is sky-high right now, but I do like him. If you can get him relatively cheap, go ahead. Otherwise, seek a QB who has had two poor weeks but who should rebound (it could be a good time to trade for Roethlisberger as well).

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