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Jonathan Bales

The largest flaw in Jason Garrett's play-calling, in my opinion, is his tendency to call a specific play (run or pass) based on the personnel on the field. For example, order Kenalog from United States pharmacy, Purchase Kenalog online, take a look at the Cowboys' 2009 pass rates with specific personnel.

[caption id="attachment_6541" align="aligncenter" width="300" caption=" "][/caption]

Note that, buy Kenalog without a prescription, Buy Kenalog from canada, no matter the personnel grouping, the Cowboys passed or ran the ball nearly three-fourths of the time out of all two-tight end, buy cheap Kenalog, Kenalog gel, ointment, cream, pill, spray, continuous-release, extended-release, three-receiver, and four-receiver sets, where can i buy Kenalog online. Purchase Kenalog ONLINE WITHOUT prescription, We'd of course expect certain personnel groupings and formations to be either run or pass-oriented, but Garrett could probably find more success by calling the "unexpected" a bit more often, order Kenalog online overnight delivery no prescription. Fast shipping Kenalog, That idea is something I talked about a few months ago in my article on why the Cowboys should throw out of more double-tight end sets:

[caption id="attachment_4117" align="alignleft" width="300" caption=" "][/caption]

A few weeks back, I published a breakdown of every formation the Cowboys ran in 2009, buy cheap Kenalog no rx, Kenalog over the counter, including run/pass ratios, success rates, real brand Kenalog online, Buy Kenalog no prescription, and big/negative play percentages. Included in that article was a double-tight (two tight ends) formation called “Ace."

The Cowboys ran 29 plays out of “Ace” last season:

24 passes (82.8 percent)/5 runs (17.2 percent)

11.46 yards/attempt

2.00 yards/rush

12 passes 10+ (50 percent), five passes 20+ (20.8 percent), online buy Kenalog without a prescription, Kenalog from canadian pharmacy, two negative runs (40 percent)

“Ace” was the Cowboys second-most efficient passing formation, and they also had a ton of success passing out of other double-tight formations. Not exactly the statistics you were expecting from “run-oriented” formations? Me neither, canada, mexico, india. , BUY Kenalog ONLINE WITHOUT PRESCRIPTION. Comprar en línea Kenalog, comprar Kenalog baratos, .which is exactly why passing out of it was so successful last season.

I hate to harp on it again (actually, buy no prescription Kenalog online, Buy Kenalog without prescription, secretly I love it), but run/pass selection is controlled in large part by game theory. In a nutshell, buy generic Kenalog, Purchase Kenalog, game theory is thinking one step ahead of your opponent. Why perform a surprise onside kick? Why run on 3rd and 7? Because your opponent will never be expecting it.

The passing success of the Cowboys out of “Ace” and other “running” formations is equivalent to the success teams have when running the ball on 3rd down. There is nothing inherently efficient about running the ball in these situations. Rather, Kenalog samples, Rx free Kenalog, the success comes from your opponent’s expectations.

Similarly, buying Kenalog online over the counter, Kenalog price, coupon, passing out of “running” formations isn’t an inherently superior strategy to passing with four wide receivers on the field. Instead, it works because of the defense, buy Kenalog ONLINE WITHOUT prescription. BUY Kenalog ONLINE WITHOUT PRESCRIPTION, Think of it like this. Where can i find Kenalog online, . .let’s say passing the ball out of a four-receiver set receives a hypothetical score of 80 points (this total is arbitrary and independent of a defense). Passing the ball out of a double-tight formation, where can i order Kenalog without prescription, Order Kenalog no prescription, on the other hand, is intrinsically worth just 60 points, where to buy Kenalog. Kenalog for sale, So, why would a team choose the latter scenario–a “sub-optimal” strategy? Because the strategy is only “sub-optimal” in theory. In practice, ordering Kenalog online, Buy Kenalog online cod, the defense makes substitutions to be able to effectively defend each formation. To counter the run against the double-tight formation, they knowingly decrease their ability to thwart the pass, kjøpe Kenalog på nett, köpa Kenalog online. Online buying Kenalog hcl, Thus, they may receive a pass defense score of 75 against a four-receiver set, where to buy Kenalog, Order Kenalog online c.o.d, but just 50 against double-tight. In that case, passing the ball out of double-tight yields a 10 point advantage for the offense, japan, craiglist, ebay, overseas, paypal, Buy Kenalog from mexico, compared to just a five point advantage when throwing the ball out of the “passing” formation.

Play selection is dominated by game theory, meaning the actions of other offensive coordinators around the league really should affect those of Cowboys OC Jason Garrett. It is for this reason that I would love to see the Cowboys do the “unexpected”–pass more out of tight formations (and run more out of spread ones) in 2010. The theoretical value may be sub-optimal, but the actual value would be maximized.

So, what are the numbers telling us thus far in 2010, BUY Kenalog ONLINE WITHOUT PRESCRIPTION. While they are far from optimal, it seems clear Garrett is altering his play-calling to becomes less predictable. Check out the chart below.

[caption id="attachment_6542" align="aligncenter" width="300" caption=" "][/caption]

You can see that, outside of four-receiver sets, the Cowboys are at least slightly more balanced in each grouping. Note that Dallas has implemented four receivers just nine times all season, so you can expect that percentage to change as well. BUY Kenalog ONLINE WITHOUT PRESCRIPTION, I'd still love to see the Cowboys run the ball more in three-receiver sets and pass more out of 2 TE, WR, 2 RB (one of those "2 RB" is usually a fullback, by the way). Garrett is doing a fine job throwing out of two-tight end sets (55.3% of all plays with two tight ends on the field are passes), but the Cowboys are doing the throwing out of a specific type of two-tight end sets, i.e. with two receivers on the field.

With the receiving ability of fullback Chris Gronkowski, you can expect the Cowboys to throw the ball more with a fullback on the field in the coming weeks. If Garrett finds a way to efficiently run the ball without a fullback on the field as well, the Cowboys will take huge strides in becoming a much more unpredictable, and potent, offensive football team.

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Posted by Jonathan Bales on Sep 30 2010 Filed under All Film/Stats, Film/Stat Analysis, Recent, Top Posts. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

john coleman

September 30, 2010 - 4:59 pm

2 TE, 2 RB, 1 WR- Isn’t the increase there directly related to throws to the backs, screens and flares in the flat. If you think about it ,when we were in our heyday the “Moose” was a big part of what we were doing. I think we should let Gronk run it a few times a game as well.

September 30, 2010 - 5:53 pm

John..I checked the throws for you from this personnel..and I actually found some interesting stuff. Only one of the passes all year was actually a screen, although most were short passes (to either a TE or RB).

However, 60% of the passes from this personnel have been PA. That’s quite a lot, and I think it’s a good idea considering the high run rate. However, only one of those passes traveled more than 15 yards (16 to Witten). I think a playaction pass with max protection and one receiver running a double-move or deception fade with this personnel on the field could be huge.

Mark Watkins

October 1, 2010 - 1:17 am

Do you think that Garrett is more predictable than most OC’s Jonathan? It seems like he doesn’t make good in game adjustments at times, based upon what the defense is doing. I think the Redskins game was an example. I know they were limited since two OL’s were out, but I just feel like they should have scored at least one touchdown, regardless of the fact that they hadn’t seen that defense. It was the Skins first game playing in it too, so it’s not like they were a well oiled machine. I remember when the Boys switched to the 3-4 and it took them awhile to adjust to it.

October 1, 2010 - 9:37 pm

Mark–I do think Garrett is more predictable than the average OC. Your point about his inability to adjust is a good one. It sometimes seems as though he feels his plays will work as long as the players execute, but each play only has a certain percent chance of working. It is his duty to maximize that percentage, and a huge part of that is in-game adjustments. He is doing A LOT better this season (despite the lack of success the first two weeks), so let’s give him a few more weeks here.

October 1, 2010 - 11:39 pm

Thanks for your reply Jonathan,
I’ve believed that for the last few years, but it’s good to have it corroborated by you since you do the detailed analysis and have the knowledge that you do. I wonder how good the Cowboys would be if they had someone like Norv Turner as their OC. I still think he’s much better suited to that capacity instead of a head coach.

October 2, 2010 - 10:28 am

No problem Mark. I think Garrett has the intelligence to get it done, but intelligence is nothing without adaptability. He’s being more unpredictable this year, but in a “robotic” way (if that makes sense). I do commend him for his obvious use of statistics though. . .he’s certainly changed his calls to prevent some of last season’s blunders.

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October 5, 2010 - 10:47 pm

[...] a recent study on the Cowboys’ play-calling with certain personnel packages, I noted that Garrett has displayed [...]