The Sportstradamus: Week Three NFL Game Picks
The majority of sports picks you find online are basically useless. They’re slapped together in minutes and have no real connection to the actual outcome of the games.
So I figured I’d give you some more useless projections.
In all seriousness, I will pick the games and totals each week and compare my results to those of other writers and sports types around the internet. They’ll be listed in the “Game Picks” tab under the “Gameday” category. I just want to show you guys how a real statistician does work. . .
Notes before reading
- An’@’ symbol is listed in front of the home team.
- Game lines alter slightly based on the source.
- The winner versus the spread is listed in bold.
- I don’t advocate gambling. These picks are simply for fun (and to prove I’m better than 95 percent of “experts” at picking games).
Week 2 Results/Overall Results
11-5 straight up/20-12 on the season
7-8-1 against the spread/14-15-3 on the season
9-7 on over-under/16-15-1 on season
Week 3 Projected Scores
@New York Giants 21 (-3) Tennessee Titans 17
The Giants obviously need to stop Chris Johnson. They’ll sell out against the run to do it, and I don’t think Vince Young can beat them with his arm.
@New England 38 (-14) Buffalo Bills 13
The Bills are terrible. That’s it.
@Baltimore 27 Cleveland 17 (+10.5)
Baltimore’s offense isn’t explosive enough to justify giving over 10 points, even to Cleveland.
Pittsburgh 21 (-2.5) @Tampa Bay 17
I’m still not a believer in Tampa. Pittsburgh’s defense should be able to shut down their offense.
Cincinnati 27 (-3) @Carolina 14
Jimmy Clausen gets his first career start and the Panthers are only three point dogs? I’ll take Cincy, please.
@New Orleans 24 Atlanta 21 (+3.5)
New Orleans is at home, but they’re coming off of a hard-fought Monday-nighter.
@Kansas City 21 (+3.5) San Francisco 20
KC is 2-0, at home, playing an 0-2 team who won’t have a full week of preparation? They shouldn’t be getting any points, really.
@Minnesota 28 Detroit 20 (+11)
The Vikings should get back on track this week, but they shouldn’t be 11-point favorites against an improved division rival (and I use the term ‘rival’ loosely here).
@Houston 27 (-2.5) Dallas 20
Look, I really want to pick the ‘Boys and I do think this is the sort of game in which they have generally come out on fire. But as poorly as they’ve played (and as well as Houston’s played on offense), how can Dallas be receiving less than a field goal?
Washington 20 @St. Louis 17 (+3.5)
Sam Bradford has kept the Rams in games this year and Washington may start poorly after a heartbreaking overtime loss.
Philadelphia 28 (-3) @Jacksonville 17
Hey, I’m a believer in Vick.
Indianapolis 28 (-5.5) @Denver 14
5.5 points is a weird number and, for all practical purposes, not much different from four points (as it relates to a spread).
San Diego 24 @Seattle 20 (+6)
Like Dallas, the Chargers sometimes struggle in the “easy” games.
Oakland 21 (+4.5) @Arizona 17
How is Oakland possibly receiving 4.5 points against a very poor Cardinals team? I liked the Raiders in the preseason, so I’m not backing down now.
@Miami 21 (-2) New York Jets 20
Brandon Marshall will break out this week with Darelle Revis out for New York. Antonio Cromartie is overrated.
Green Bay 24 @Chicago 21 (+3.5)
A home underdog playing a division rival on Monday night is generally a good bet.
New York/Tennessee UNDER 42.5
New England/Baltimore OVER 42.5
Baltimore/Cleveland OVER 37
Pittsburgh/Tampa Bay OVER 33
Cincinnati/Carolina OVER 38
New Orleans/Atlanta UNDER 49.5
San Francisco/Kansas City OVER 36.5
Minnesota/Detroit OVER 42.5
Houston/Dallas UNDER 47.5
Washington/St. Louis UNDER 39
Philadelphia/Jacksonville OVER 44
Indianapolis/Denver UNDER 48.5
San Diego/Seattle UNDER 45
Arizona/Oakland UNDER 39.5
Miami/New York Jets OVER 35
Green Bay/Chicago UNDER 46