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The Sportstradamus: Week 4 NFL Game Picks

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Jonathan Bales

The majority of sports picks you find online are basically useless.  They’re slapped together in minutes and have no real connection to the actual outcome of the games.

So I figured I’d give you some more useless projections.

In all seriousness, I will pick the games and totals each week and compare my results to those of other writers and sports types around the internet.  They’ll be listed in the “Game Picks” tab under the “Gameday” category.  I just want to show you guys how a real statistician does work. . .

Notes before reading

  • An’@’ symbol is listed in front of the home team.
  • Game lines alter slightly based on the source.
  • The winner versus the spread is listed in bold.
  • I don’t advocate gambling.  These picks are simply for fun (and to prove I’m better than 95 percent of “experts” at picking games).

Week 3 Results/Overall Results

8-8 straight up/28-20 on the season

11-5 against the spread/25-20-3 on the season

9-7 on over-under/25-22-1 on season

Week 4 Projected Scores

@Tennessee 23 Denver 17 (+7)

I really don’t think Denver will win this game, but I never like low-scoring favorites by a touchdown or more.

Baltimore 20 (+1.5) @Pittsburgh 17

Pittsburgh’s defense is winning them football games in Big Ben’s absence, but I think Baltimore will be desperate to nab a win against the Steelers before he returns.

Cincinnati 27 (-3) @Cleveland 14

Home underdogs in a division rival are scary, but Cleveland sucks.

@Green Bay 27 Detroit 14 (+14.5)

This is such a tough game (with the spread).  Green Bay is going to win, but over two touchdowns?

@New Orleans 31 Carolina 20 (+14)

See above.

@Atlanta 21 San Francisco 17 (+7)

This is a make-or-break game for the 49ers.  Do they throw in the towel, or come out fighting in hopes of salvaging their season?

Seattle 21 (-1) @St. Louis 17

I almost liked St. Louis straight up, but they still have a rookie quarterback, a porous offensive line, a terrible defense, and possibly no Steven Jackson.

New York Jets 24 (-5.5) @Buffalo 13

The Jets are cruising after their big-time win in Miami last week.  They could come out sluggish in Buffalo, but they should ultimately be able to overpower Buffalo up front.

Indianapolis 30 (-7) @Jacksonville 14

Indianapolis is so much better than Jacksonville it is unreal.

Houston 23 (-2.5) @Oakland 20

I’m really not sure why Houston is giving up less than a field goal in this game.  They are far more talented than Oakland and the Raiders are coming off of a hard-fought, debilitating loss against Arizona.

@San Diego 24 Arizona 17 (+8.5)

When will San Diego pick up their play?  You know it’s coming, but it may be too little too late this season.

@Philadelphia 23 Washington 20 (+6)

This is the game of the week, at least for me.  I can’t wait to see how Philly fans will react to McNabb’s return.

@New York Giants 23 Chicago 20 (+4)

The Bears are on a roll, but Cutler could be vulnerable to the Giants’ pass rush.  I also think New York is in desperation mode, much like Dallas last week.

@Miami (+1.5) 21 New England 20

Home underdog, at home, against a division rival, on Monday night.  That’s it.

Over/Under

Tennessee/Denver UNDER 42.5

Pittsburgh/Baltimore OVER 34.5

Cincinnati/Cleveland OVER 37.5

Green Bay/Detroit UNDER 45.5

New Orleans/Carolina OVER 44.5

Atlanta/San Francisco UNDER 43

Seattle/St. Louis UNDER 40

New York Jets/Buffalo OVER 36.5

Indianapolis/Jacksonville UNDER 46

Houston/Oakland UNDER 43.5

San Diego/Arizona UNDER 45.5

Philadelphia/Washington OVER 42.5

New York Giants/Chicago UNDER 44

New England/Miami UNDER 46.5

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2 Responses to The Sportstradamus: Week 4 NFL Game Picks

  1. Kevin Keithley says:

    Philly @ Wash, is hard to pick. As much as I hate the redskins I hope they beat philly, for the only reason that it helps the Cowboys.

  2. Yeah..I will be rooting for WSH too because I think PHI is far more dangerous.

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