The Sportstradamus: Week 5 NFL Game Picks
The majority of sports picks you find online are basically useless. They’re slapped together in minutes and have no real connection to the actual outcome of the games.
So I figured I’d give you some more useless projections.
In all seriousness, I will pick the games and totals each week and compare my results to those of other writers and sports types around the internet. They’ll be listed in the “Game Picks” tab under the “Gameday” category. I just want to show you guys how a real statistician does work. . .
Notes before reading
- An’@’ symbol is listed in front of the home team.
- Game lines alter slightly based on the source.
- The winner versus the spread is listed in bold.
- I don’t advocate gambling. These picks are simply for fun (and to prove I’m better than 95 percent of “experts” at picking games).
Week 4 Results/Overall Results
8-6 straight up/36-26 overall
8-6 against the spread/33-26-3 overall
5-9 on over-under/30-31-1 overall
Week 4 Projected Score
@Baltimore 17 Denver 14 (+7.5)
I just can’t see this game being high-scoring, and as I’ve said before, I like underdogs (particular of a touchdown or more) in low-scoring contests.
Jacksonville 21 (PICK) @Buffalo 14
Jacksonville has actually been solid in a couple of games this year, while the Bills are simply horrid.
@Indianapolis 21 Kansas City 20 (+8.5)
When was the last time you saw a 2-2 team favored by this much over an undefeated one? I know Indy is better, but they haven’t shown it yet.
@Cincinnati 13 Tampa Bay 10 (+7)
I am confident that Tampa won’t lose this one by more than a touchdown, even in Cincy. Both defenses have been stout this season.
Green Bay 24 (-2.5) @Washington 14
Green Bay is so much better than Washington it’s unreal. The Packers have seen a rash of injuries lately, but they should be favored by a touchdown here.
St. Louis 20 (+3) @Detroit 16
Who would have thought that by Week Five I’d be picking the Rams to win straight up as an underdog on the road.
Chicago 14 (+1.5) @Carolina 10
Even with Todd Collins starting at quarterback, I think the Bears will be able to score just enough to overtake Carolina.
@Houston 33 (-2.5) New York Giants 17
I’m more confident about this game than any other. I use a formula to determine projected scores, and this is what came out. Go Texans.
Atlanta 17 (-3) @Cleveland 10
I’m pretty shocked that Atlanta is only favored by a field goal in Cleveland. The game will be low-scoring, but I think the Falcons would win by 3+ points about 80 percent of the time.
New Orleans 27 (-7) @Arizona 10
If New Orleans plays like they did last week, they could lose this game. They won’t, and they won’t.
@Dallas 16 Tennessee 14 (+7)
I really hope the ‘Boys score more than 16 points, but Tennessee’s defense is really good. I don’t think the Titans can score more than two touchdowns on Dallas, though.
San Diego 31 (-6) @Oakland 14
San Diego will either blow out the Raiders or lose in a close one. . .they’re that fluky.
Philadelphia 27 (+3.5) @San Francisco 14
Even with Kevin Kolb at quarterback, how is Philly an underdog against the 0-4 Niners? I know San Fran is better than they’ve played, but Kolb can’t be that bad, can he?
@New York Jets 20 (-4) Minnesota 13
It will take some time for Favre and Moss to get on the same page. Hopefully it will take more than two weeks (the Vikings play Dallas next week).
Baltimore/Denver UNDER 38.5
Jacksonville/Buffalo OVER 41
Indianapolis/Kansas City UNDER 44.5
Cincinnati/Tampa Bay UNDER 37.5
Green Bay/Washington UNDER 44
St. Louis/Detroit UNDER 43.5
Chicago/Carolina UNDER 35.5
Houston/New York Giants OVER 47
Atlanta/Cleveland UNDER 40.5
New Orleans/Arizona UNDER 45.5
Dallas/Tennessee UNDER 41.5
San Diego/Oakland OVER 44.5
Philadelphia/San Francisco OVER 37
New York/Minnesota UNDER 39