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The Sportstradamus: Week 5 NFL Game Picks

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Jonathan Bales

The majority of sports picks you find online are basically useless.  They’re slapped together in minutes and have no real connection to the actual outcome of the games.

So I figured I’d give you some more useless projections.

In all seriousness, I will pick the games and totals each week and compare my results to those of other writers and sports types around the internet.  They’ll be listed in the “Game Picks” tab under the “Gameday” category.  I just want to show you guys how a real statistician does work. . .

Notes before reading

  • An’@’ symbol is listed in front of the home team.
  • Game lines alter slightly based on the source.
  • The winner versus the spread is listed in bold.
  • I don’t advocate gambling.  These picks are simply for fun (and to prove I’m better than 95 percent of “experts” at picking games).

Week 4 Results/Overall Results

8-6 straight up/36-26 overall

8-6 against the spread/33-26-3 overall

5-9 on over-under/30-31-1 overall

Week 4 Projected Score

@Baltimore 17 Denver 14 (+7.5)

I just can’t see this game being high-scoring, and as I’ve said before, I like underdogs (particular of a touchdown or more) in low-scoring contests.

Jacksonville 21 (PICK) @Buffalo 14

Jacksonville has actually been solid in a couple of games this year, while the Bills are simply horrid.

@Indianapolis 21 Kansas City 20 (+8.5)

When was the last time you saw a 2-2 team favored by this much over an undefeated one?  I know Indy is better, but they haven’t shown it yet.

@Cincinnati 13 Tampa Bay 10 (+7)

I am confident that Tampa won’t lose this one by more than a touchdown, even in Cincy.  Both defenses have been stout this season.

Green Bay 24 (-2.5) @Washington 14

Green Bay is so much better than Washington it’s unreal.  The Packers have seen a rash of injuries lately, but they should be favored by a touchdown here.

St. Louis 20 (+3) @Detroit 16

Who would have thought that by Week Five I’d be picking the Rams to win straight up as an underdog on the road.

Chicago 14 (+1.5) @Carolina 10

Even with Todd Collins starting at quarterback, I think the Bears will be able to score just enough to overtake Carolina.

@Houston 33 (-2.5) New York Giants 17

I’m more confident about this game than any other.  I use a formula to determine projected scores, and this is what came out.  Go Texans.

Atlanta 17 (-3) @Cleveland 10

I’m pretty shocked that Atlanta is only favored by a field goal in Cleveland.  The game will be low-scoring, but I think the Falcons would win by 3+ points about 80 percent of the time.

New Orleans 27 (-7) @Arizona 10

If New Orleans plays like they did last week, they could lose this game.  They won’t, and they won’t.

@Dallas 16 Tennessee 14 (+7)

I really hope the ‘Boys score more than 16 points, but Tennessee’s defense is really good.  I don’t think the Titans can score more than two touchdowns on Dallas, though.

San Diego 31 (-6) @Oakland 14

San Diego will either blow out the Raiders or lose in a close one. . .they’re that fluky.

Philadelphia 27 (+3.5) @San Francisco 14

Even with Kevin Kolb at quarterback, how is Philly an underdog against the 0-4 Niners?  I know San Fran is better than they’ve played, but Kolb can’t be that bad, can he?

@New York Jets 20 (-4) Minnesota 13

It will take some time for Favre and Moss to get on the same page.  Hopefully it will take more than two weeks (the Vikings play Dallas next week).

Over/Under

Baltimore/Denver UNDER 38.5

Jacksonville/Buffalo OVER 41

Indianapolis/Kansas City UNDER 44.5

Cincinnati/Tampa Bay UNDER 37.5

Green Bay/Washington UNDER 44

St. Louis/Detroit UNDER 43.5

Chicago/Carolina UNDER 35.5

Houston/New York Giants OVER 47

Atlanta/Cleveland UNDER 40.5

New Orleans/Arizona UNDER 45.5

Dallas/Tennessee UNDER 41.5

San Diego/Oakland OVER 44.5

Philadelphia/San Francisco OVER 37

New York/Minnesota UNDER 39

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5 Responses to The Sportstradamus: Week 5 NFL Game Picks

  1. john coleman says:

    Three games are very interesting to me. #1 Houston vs. New York- Somebody is going to get exposed. Is the Giants passrush really that good? Can Houston finally stop somebody on defense? Houston to win. #2 Philly vs. San Fran- Does Philly have a defense? Gore if healthy may light them up. San Fran’s D will play better. I thought Philly’s defense was more of a question mark going into the season than Kolb was. San Fran gets 1st win and the Philly fans are howling. #3 New York vs. Minnesota- No it’s not about Moss. Can New York handle the D line of the Vikes. LT will be shut down this week. That leaves the game in Sanchez’s hands. Uh oh! The Vikings offense gets rolling with Peterson. Moss is largely a decoy this week, but he will get some throws. Look for Shiancoe to be the receiving star. Minnesota by a touchdown, Jets offense struggles! Look for 10 to 14 points from the Jets. I would love to see Washington lose as well and expect it to happen. Cowboys roll in romp. CJ gets less than 60 yards, VY sacked 7 times, Boys get 5 turnovers. How’s that?

  2. john coleman says:

    Cowboys 45-10!

  3. Wow…seven sacks and 5 takeaways. . .I’ll take it!

  4. moses says:

    Balrimore 21 Denver 14
    Denver will struggle with the Baltimore D and Ravens are getting better at O
    Indy vs KC. Indy wins straight up but doesn’t cover
    GB wins over Washington 24-21 but it is a closer game
    Dallas 24 Tenn 16. I think the Cowboys hold the Titans off. It depends on the discipline on D and not allowing a lot of cut back lanes for CJ.
    Philly 14 SF 17. Kolb has been horrible. He doesn’t look past 10 yds for any of his WRs. This takes Jackson and Maclein out. All he has is McCoy underneath, like he has done all season.
    Minn 24 Jets 17 – Moss makes a difference right away. He will be out to prove something and when he’s motivated; watch out. I just hope he gets it out of his system before he gets to Dallas!
    Hou 21 NYG 17 – I think it is a closer game. A Johnson has been a little gimpy and Foster has been pretty good. Both teams will run, but Houston wins.

  5. Seems we only disagree on Philly and Minny. The Jets game could certainly go either way, but I do see Dallas being able to contain CJ for the most part. I just don’t think Tennessee can score enough to win this game.

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