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The Sportstradamus: Week 7 NFL Game Picks

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Jonathan Bales

The majority of sports picks you find online are basically useless.  They’re slapped together in minutes and have no real connection to the actual outcome of the games.

So I figured I’d give you some more useless projections.

In all seriousness, I will pick the games and totals each week and compare my results to those of other writers and sports types around the internet.  They’ll be listed in the “Game Picks” tab under the “Gameday” category.  I just want to show you guys how a real statistician does work. . .

Notes before reading

  • An’@’ symbol is listed in front of the home team.
  • Game lines alter slightly based on the source.
  • The winner versus the spread is listed in bold.
  • I don’t advocate gambling.  These picks are simply for fun (and to prove I’m better than 95 percent of “experts” at picking games).

Week 6 Results/Overall Results

8-6 straight up/51-39 on season

5-6-3 against spread/45-39-6 on season

8-6 on over-under/45-44-1 on season

Week 7 Projected Scores

Pittsburgh 24 (-3) @Miami 14

Roethlisberger showed enough last week to lead me to believe he’s already nearly in mid-season form.  Miami’s offense doesn’t match up well with their D.

@Atlanta 24 (-3) Cincinnati 20

I’m not sure why the oddsmakers are basically saying Atlanta and Cincy are comparable in talent.  Atlanta is clearly a better squad.

@Kansas City 17 Jacksonville 10 (+10)

Kansas City isn’t good enough to be giving 10 points against any team.  I know the Jags are horrible, but come on.

@Tennessee 21 Philadelphia 20 (+3)

I almost picked Philly straight up, but the game is in Tennessee and the Titans’ defensive line should be able to eat up the Eagles’ offensive line.  With Kevin Kolb starting, Michael Vick won’t be covering up the O-Line’s mistakes.

@Chicago 17 Washington 16 (+3)

I think this game is going to be low-scoring, which means the Redskins should be able to stay in it long enough to either eek out a win or cover the spread.

@New Orleans 33 (-13) Cleveland 17

New Orleans has been up-and-down all year, but I don’t think they’ll have trouble at home against the Browns.

@Baltimore 24 Buffalo 13 (+14)

Buffalo is the worst team in the league, but both they and Baltimore should be able to keep the clock moving enough that the Bills will lose by less than two touchdowns.

San Francisco 24 (-2.5) @Carolina 14

San Francisco is a victim of their record here: they are a much better team than 1-5.

@Tampa Bay 21 (-2.5) St. Louis 17

Both squads seem to have found their quarterback of the future, but Tampa is at home and can generally provide better pass protection than the Rams.

@Seattle 20 (-6.5) Arizona 10

Seattle’s defense has been incredible this year and Arizona just won’t be able to score many points in a hostile environment.

New England 27 (+3) @San Diego 20

I’m really shocked that the Pats are getting three points in San Diego.  The Chargers are first in both total offense and total defense (in terms of yards), yet 2-4.

@Denver 20 Oakland 13 (+8.5)

I have no idea what to think about Oakland in this game, but 8.5 points is quite a lot for a division rivalry.

@Green Bay 27 (-2.5) Minnesota 24

Minnesota’s strength is defending the run, but Green Bay doesn’t really have a running back anyway.

@Dallas 27 (-3) New York Giants 20

Perhaps I’m just a sucker for continually picking this team to win.  Vegas has them as favorites too, but that may be more based on public perception than reality.

Over/Under

Pittsburgh/Miami UNDER 41.5

Atlanta/Cincinnati OVER 42.5

Kansas City/Jacksonville UNDER 37.5

Chicago/Washington UNDER 40

Tennessee/Philadelphia UNDER 42.5

New Orleans/Cleveland OVER 43

Baltimore/Buffalo UNDER 40

San Francisco/Carolina OVER 35.5

Tampa/St. Louis UNDER 38.5

Seattle/Arizona UNDER 40.5

New England/San Diego UNDER 48

Oakland/Denver UNDER 41.5

Green Bay/Minnesota OVER 43.5

Dallas/New York OVER 44

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