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Cowboys-Packers Simulations

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Pretty cool analysis of the Cowboys-Packers game below.  According to ESPN’s AccuScore (which isn’t as popular as it should be because ESPN doesn’t promote anything interesting they have), the Cowboys will win this game 24 percent of the time.

Interestingly, if Kitna doesn’t throw a pick and the Cowboys’ running backs average 5.0 yards-per-carry, Dallas jumps to a 64 percent favorite.  Of course, one could counter that the chances of Kitna not throwing a single interception and the Cowboys rushing the ball effectively are very slim, meaning the fact that the Cowboys are only a 64 percent favorite in that scenario a testament to how far they’ve fallen.

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