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The Sportstradamus: NFL Week 9 Game Picks

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Jonathan Bales

The majority of sports picks you find online are basically useless.  They’re slapped together in minutes and have no real connection to the actual outcome of the games.

So I figured I’d give you some more useless projections.

In all seriousness, I will pick the games and totals each week and compare my results to those of other writers and sports types around the internet.  They’ll be listed in the “Game Picks” tab under the “Gameday” category.  I just want to show you guys how a real statistician does work. . .

Notes before reading

  • An’@’ symbol is listed in front of the home team.
  • Game lines alter slightly based on the source.
  • The winner versus the spread is listed in bold.
  • I don’t advocate gambling.  These picks are simply for fun (and to prove I’m better than 95 percent of “experts” at picking games).

Week 8 Results/Overall Results

9-4 straight up/69-48 on season

10-3 against spread/62-49-6 on season

10-3 on over-under/64-52-1 on season

Finally the big week I’ve been anticipating.  10-3 against the spread and on totals is awesome.  It’s interesting that I’ve picked nearly as many games right against the spread as straight up on the season.  I’m also pretty much dominating other “experts” around the web. . .

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks

http://walterfootball.com/picks.php

Week 9 Game Picks

@Chicago 20 (-2.5) Buffalo 17

This seems like an “obvious” line but Buffalo has really played better than Chicago the past few weeks.  Still, I just can’t take an 0-7 team nearly straight up on the road.

@Houston 24 (+3.5) San Diego 21

Since when did the Chargers become consistent enough to be favored over a good team by over a field goal on the road?

New Orleans 28 (-6) @Carolina 14

This could be a trap game for New Orleans, but they’re again playing well and Carolina is awful.

@Minnesota 23 Arizona 17 (+8)

With all of the turmoil in Minnesota, I’ll gladly take Arizona plus more than a touchdown.

@Atlanta 21 Tampa Bay 14 (+9)

I know Atlanta is a better football team, but Tampa Bay is still tied for the division lead.  They deserve some respect.

New York Jets 23 (-3.5) Detroit 17

This is called an ‘overreaction line’ based on last week’s results.  I love it.

@Baltimore 27 Miami 24 (+6)

Miami is fighting to stay in the hunt in the AFC.  I think they have a shot to win this thing outright, even on the road.

New England 24 (-4) @Cleveland 13

The tricky thing here is the Belichick/Mangini relationship, but I’ll side with the Pats’ head coach in that one.

New York Giants 27 (-6.5) @Seattle 17

I get a feeling the Giants are going to destroy Seattle.

@Oakland 21 Kansas City 20 (+3)

I know Oakland is hot, but let’s not get carried away.  If you reversed the order of Oakland’s wins, they’d be seven point underdogs here.

Indianapolis 28 (+3) @Philadelphia 23

The Colts are three point underdogs in Philly?  What!?  I think the fact that Andy Reid is 11-0 after a bye is being weighted too heavily.  Would anyone even know that stat if he was 9-2 instead?

@Green Bay 28 (-7) Dallas 14

The Cowboys’ only hope is to play incredibly well on defense, but I just don’t see that happening.

Pittsburgh 27 (-5) Cincinnati 20

A strange line like ‘5’ usually means the books think the Steelers will win and cover but don’t want you to know that.  They make the line look as bad as possible without it really being much worse.  There isn’t much of a difference between, say, 5.5, and 4, for example.

Over/Under

Chicago/Buffalo UNDER 41

Houston/San Diego UNDER 50.5

New Orleans/Carolina OVER 40.5

Minnesota/Arizona UNDER 41

Atlanta/Tampa Bay UNDER 44.5

New York Jets/Detroit UNDER 43

Baltimore/Miami OVER 40

New England/Cleveland UNDER 44.5

New York Giants/Seattle OVER 40

Oakland/Kansas City OVER 40.5

Indianapolis/Philadelphia OVER 46.5

Green Bay/Dallas UNDER 45.5

Pittsburgh/Cincinnati OVER 41

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