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The Sportstradamus: Week 10 NFL Game Picks

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Jonathan Bales

The majority of sports picks you find online are basically useless.  They’re slapped together in minutes and have no real connection to the actual outcome of the games.

So I figured I’d give you some more useless projections.

In all seriousness, I will pick the games and totals each week and compare my results to those of other writers and sports types around the internet.  They’ll be listed in the “Game Picks” tab under the “Gameday” category.  I just want to show you guys how a real statistician does work. . .

Notes before reading

  • An’@’ symbol is listed in front of the home team.
  • Game lines alter slightly based on the source.
  • The winner versus the spread is listed in bold.
  • I don’t advocate gambling.  These picks are simply for fun (and to prove I’m better than 95 percent of “experts” at picking games).

Week 9 Results/Overall Results

10-3 straight up/79-51 on season

8-4-1 against spread/70-53-7 on season

4-7-2 on over-under/68-59-3 on season

Poor week on totals, but another solid one on straight up picks and against the spread.  I’ve now picked 56.9 percent of games correctly against the spread, which is pretty awesome considering I’m picking every game and not hand-selecting the ones I prefer.

Week 10 Game Picks

@Atlanta 23 (-1) Baltimore 20

This is such a difficult game to predict, and I’m taking Atlanta solely because they’re at home.

*Note: I had written this yesterday and just totally forgot to post it before last night’s game, but I did have Atlanta winning.

@Indianapolis 28 (-6.5) Cincinnati 21

Indy has something for which to play.  Cincy doesn’t.

Houston 23 (+1.5) @Jacksonville 17

Houston is by far the more talented team, but Jacksonville matches up very well against them.  Still, I’ll take the team with the better quarterback.

Tennessee 17 (-2) @Miami 14

I don’t think Chad Pennington is the answer for Miami.  Expect a low-scoring affair. . .at least for the ‘Phins.

Minnesota 27 (-1) @Chicago 17

This is another must-win for the Vikings.  The players on that team hate Brad Childress, but they want to show they can win in spite of him.

@Buffalo 27 (-2.5) Detroit 20

I like the Bills because this is their Super Bowl.  The Lions are a better team, but Buffalo will be pinpointing this game as their biggest opportunity for a win, particularly with Matthew Stafford out.

New York Jets 20 (-2.5) @Cleveland 14

I’m not a believer in the Browns.  They’re built similarly to the Jets, but New York is just so much more talented in the trenches.

@Tampa Bay 27 (-6) Carolina 7

I simply can’t see how the Panthers are going to score enough points to remain competitive in this one.

Kansas City 24 (-1) @Denver 13

The Chiefs are still getting no love from the public.  I realize they’re on the road in a divisional matchup, but come on.

@San Francisco 23 St. Louis 20 (+7)

This is a make-or-break game for the Niners.  If they win it, they’ll quietly be right back in the hunt for the NFC West title.

@Arizona 20 (-2.5) Seattle 17

Seattle has struggled of late, and Arizona plays really tough at home.

@New York Giants 28 Dallas 21 (+14)

I don’t care how bad Dallas is playing. . .I have to take them with a two touchdown margin.  I actually think they’ll play much better this game than in the two previous ones.

@Pittsburgh 24 (-4) New England 17

The Steelers are probably the best team in the NFL.  I’ll take them over a Pats team that has to be demoralized after losing to Cleveland.

@Washington 21 (+3) Philadelphia 17

The coaches in Washington don’t seem to have any confidence in Donovan McNabb, but I think the players still do.  They’ll fight for him one last time against his former team.

Over/Under

Atlanta/Baltimore UNDER 44

Indianapolis/Cincinnati OVER 47

Houston/Jacksonville UNDER 50

Tennessee/Miami UNDER 43.5

Minnesota/Chicago OVER 40

Buffalo/Detroit OVER 43

New York Jets/Cleveland UNDER 38

Tampa Bay/Carolina UNDER 37

Kansas City/Denver UNDER 43

San Francisco/St. Louis OVER 38

Arizona/Seattle UNDER 41.5

New York Giants/Dallas OVER 45.5

Pittsburgh/New England UNDER 45

Washington/Philadelphia UNDER 43

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