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The Sportstradamus: Week 11 NFL Game Picks

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Jonathan Bales

The majority of sports picks you find online are basically useless.  They’re slapped together in minutes and have no real connection to the actual outcome of the games.

So I figured I’d give you some more useless projections.

In all seriousness, I will pick the games and totals each week and compare my results to those of other writers and sports types around the internet.  They’ll be listed in the “Game Picks” tab under the “Gameday” category.  I just want to show you guys how a real statistician does work. . .

Notes before reading

  • An’@’ symbol is listed in front of the home team.
  • Game lines alter slightly based on the source.
  • The winner versus the spread is listed in bold.
  • I don’t advocate gambling.  These picks are simply for fun (and to prove I’m better than 95 percent of “experts” at picking games).

Week 10 Results/Overall Results

6-8 straight up/85-59 on season

6-8 against spread/76-61-7 on season

2-11-1 on over-under/70-70-4 on season

What a horrible week.

Week 11 Game Picks

@Miami 24 (-1) Chicago 17

I don’t think Tyler Thigpen is much of a downgrade from either Chad Henne or Chad Pennington.

@Pittsburgh 23 Oakland 20 (+7.5)

The Steelers are going to win this game, but 7.5 is too many points to not take.

@New York Jets 23 Houston 17 (+7.5)

I’ll take Houston with the points not because of their talent, but because it will be hard for the Jets to score a ton of points in any game.

Baltimore 30 (-10) @Carolina 7

The Panthers are starting Brian St. Pierre.

@Tennessee 20 Washington 14 (+7)

Fans tend to overreact to a team’s performance in their last game, which is what is happening with the Redskins here.

Dallas 27 (-6.5) @Detroit 20

I’m back on the Cowboys’ bandwagon.  Uh oh.

Green Bay 27 @Minnesota 24 (+3.5)

I know Green Bay has much more to play for than Minny, but Brett Favre will be on his ‘A’ game.

@Cincinnati 17 Buffalo 14 (+6.5)

Cincinnati is one of the league’s worst teams but is still being treated like they’re average.

@Jacksonville 20 (-1.5) Cleveland 17

I thought the Jags would be 4-point favorites here.

@Kansas City 23 Arizona 20 (+8)

Kansas City is playing like the team they are–average.

@New Orleans 27 (-11) Seattle 10

11 points is a lot to give up but I see a blowout here with Reggie Bush likely to return.

Atlanta 30 (-3) @St. Louis 20

The Rams have over-performed this season.  Their defense won’t be able to stop Matt Ryan.

@San Francisco 24 (-3) Tampa Bay 20

There’s light at the end of the tunnel for San Fran and they’re on a roll.

@New England 24 Indianapolis 23 (+3.5)

Why isn’t this game on Sunday or Monday night?

@Philadelphia 27 (-3) New York Giants 20

The Giants have the athletic pass-rushers to contain Vick (relatively speaking), but is their secondary up for the task of stopping Vick 2.0?

@San Diego 27 Denver 20 (+10.5)

Who really knows what will happen when the Broncos take the field?

Over/Under

Miami/Chicago OVER 39

Pittsburgh/Oakland OVER 41

New York Jets/Houston UNDER 45.5

Baltimore/Carolina UNDER 38

Tennessee/Washington UNDER 44.5

Dallas/Detroit OVER 46

Green Bay/Minnesota OVER 44

Cincinnati/Buffalo UNDER 44

Jacksonville/Cleveland UNDER 44

Kansas City/Arizona UNDER 44

New Orleans/Seattle UNDER 44

Atlanta/St. Louis OVER 43

San Fran/Tampa Bay OVER 41

New England/Indianapolis UNDER 50.5

Philadelphia/New York UNDER 48.5

San Diego/Denver UNDER 50.5

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