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Should the Cowboys stockpile draft picks?

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Code and Football recently published a study which concluded that there is a statistically significant correlation between the number of draft picks a team acquires and their win percentage.  Over the last 17 seasons, the Patriots (159 picks), Titans (157 picks), Packers (152 picks), Jaguars (141 picks), and Eagles (149 picks) have recorded the most draft picks per season.  All of them have recorded win percentages over .500, with New England, Green Bay and Philly being the obvious “powerhouses” of that group.

So, is this evidence the Cowboys should move down in the draft to grab more selections?  I think it really depends on each individual scenario.  There is no reason to move simply for the sake of moving.  But if the Cowboys don’t love any player at a particular selection, perhaps they should be even more inclined to move back in light of this evidence.  Further, they better really be in love with a player to make a move up.

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2 Responses to Should the Cowboys stockpile draft picks?

  1. Guys,

    Thanks for the shout out. No one knows yet whether this is cause and effect. Correlation does not imply causation. In other words, are teams winners because they stockpile draft picks, or do winners, by virtue of losing free agents and developing players (which they trade for more picks) simply accumulate more picks?

    David nee Code and Football.

  2. David,

    Great point. I would argue that it is more likely that teams become good because they accumulate picks (and thus a higher probability of finding great players) than the idea of teams accumulating picks because they are already good. The cause and effect relationship is apparent in the first, but not the second, although I certainly see and understand your point on the correlation/causation relationship.

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