True Pass Rates
I just saw an awesome post at The Fifth Down that recalculates team’s pass rates based on score. In my last article, I detailed why rushing numbers correlate to wins, but not due to a causal relationship. Well, the opposite is true, as teams that are winning games tend to pass less. To see that, look no further than the Green Bay Packers, who, despite being correctly labeled as a pass-first team, are just 18th in the NFL in passing attempts.
If you follow the link above, you can see the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL, after accounting for game situation. The top 10? Green Bay, Baltimore, Pittsbrugh, New England, Philly, Chicago, New Orleans, Detroit, Carolina and Dallas (combined winning percentage of 61.5%). The bottom 10 are Jacksonville, Kansas City, Oakland, Denver, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cleveland, Indy, New York Jets and San Fran (combined winning percentage of 36%).
As if we needed more evidence that passing wins games. . .