Introducing Fantasy Football for Smart People
I’m literally not even kidding when I say that sh***y (shoddy?) image to the left is the best thing I could create. Despite my lack of Photoshop skills, I’m proud to introduce to you Fantasy Football for Smart People. I’ve been writing this book for the past few months and it is finally finished. I’ve set up a landing site to purchase the book for $8.99 at FantasyFootballDrafting.com. You can buy a PDF version of the book there, or you can buy it for Kindle at Amazon.
Here’s a bit more about the book:
“Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft is an in-depth analysis of fantasy football draft strategy. In writing the book, my goal was to provide advanced material for experienced fantasy football owners and “bottom line” analysis for novices. You can see that in the sample chapter I posted here. The book is not a collection of player rankings or projections for 2012, but rather an assessment of various draft strategies and fantasy football tenants. It is my hope it will provide a solid foundation from which you can improve as an owner to dominate your draft.”
If you play fantasy football, I really think you’ll enjoy the book. This isn’t another generic fantasy football guide for beginners. I use the same sort of stats and analysis as I do here to provide an overarching fantasy football draft strategy. It is the method I use each fantasy football season, and it should be useful to you as well.
Even if you don’t play fantasy football, you might want to check out the book anyway. I’m giving away a number of prizes to those who buy the book, including season tickets to the NFL team of your choice.
Support The DC Times
Purchasing the e-book is a great way to support this site. I haven’t sold much over the years and I try not to litter the site with ads because my primary concern is simply writing about the Cowboys and NFL. The more books I sell, the more time I will have free to publish unique content here (I’m really going to do it either way, but you can still show your support). Plus, I’m confident the book is worth the nine bucks, and you can win some cool stuff.
Again, Fantasy Football for Smart People is currently an e-book. It will come to you as a PDF unless you buy it on Amazon. I will have paperbacks available for sell within a week or so. If you buy the book and enjoy it, feel free to give it a review on Amazon.
Here’s what you’ll read about in the book. . .
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: The Most In-Depth Introduction You’ll Ever Read
This is an introduction, but I dive right into complex draft strategy, explaining how position scarcity, consistency, game theory, and league requirements are the four pillars of fantasy football draft strategy.
- How to use scarcity at a position to acquire maximum value
- How to use your opponents’ beliefs to get the best players
- Why predictability is more important than projected points
Chapter 2: Why Week-to-Week Consistency is (Almost) Worthless
An explanation of why weekly projections are of little value, why season-to-season consistency is invaluable, and how to implement risk
- Why you should start a nearly identical lineup each week
- How to create tiered rankings that implement players’ risk
- When and how to take gambles during your draft
Chapter 3: Season-to-Season Consistency: Why It Matters and How to Use it
The strength of correlation of fantasy football statistics from one year to the next
- How stats like rushing, receiving, and passing yards/touchdowns translate from one season to another
- Why defenses and kickers are almost entirely unpredictable
- Why a quarterback or top-tier running back should be your first-round selection
- Why tight ends are the most consistent players in fantasy football and drafting one early in 2012 might not be a poor idea
- How to use “hidden” stats like quarterback rushing yards to gain a draft advantage
Chapter 4: Tier-ing Up: How to Create Basic Projections and Tiered Rankings
Basic projection philosophy, including how to use consistency, risk, and average draft position to create rankings
- A basic formula to create projections
- How to make tiers in your rankings
- Why you should almost never take the best player available on your board (for real)
- Why drafting near the end of a round is advantageous
Chapter 5: More on Position Scarcity
A short chapter on scarcity and VORP draft strategy
- Why Aaron Rodgers and Rob Gronkowski might be the perfect 1-2 combination in 2012
- Why you can grab quality wide receivers late
Chapter 6: Identifying Value: Regression, Randomness, and Running Backs
Using stats to identify breakout players and dispel fantasy football “trusisms”
- How to identify undervalued players
- Why running backs with lots of carries aren’t really being overworked or overvalued
- How to predict running backs’ yards-per-carry
Chapter 7: Getting Bullish: What the Stock Market Can Teach Us About Fantasy Football
How fantasy football is incredibly similar to the stock market (and what we can learn from the latter)
- Why a player’s value can be different for different teams
- How to “buy low” and “sell high” during your draft
- How to utilize public perception
- Why your focus shouldn’t be securing the most projected points with each pick, but rather “losing” the least
Chapter 8: The Ultimate Draft Plan: From Projections to Selections
Creating an overarching draft plan to dominate your draft
- Specific formulas to project player stats
- How to factor league requirements into your rankings
- Sample breakdowns of Matt Ryan and Steve Smith
- How to create player power ratings and turn them into the ultimate big board
Chapter 9: Don’t Mock Me: Oh, now wait. Go ahead.
Taking you through three mock drafts I completed in May
- Notes on all 60 draft picks
- Tips on strategy from specific draft slots