The DC Times

A New Way to Look at the Cowboys, NFL, and Fantasy Football

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Fantasy Football for Smart People Now Only $6.99 on Amazon

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The Kindle version of Fantasy Football for Smart People is available on Amazon for $6.99. The paperback is still $12.99. Those interested in the book might also want to check out some sportsbook reviews.

From the book:

How to Add Positional Consistency Into Projections

One quick and easy method to implement positional consistency into player ratings is to multiply projected points for a position by the correlational strength of consistency.  That is:

C(P), where C is correlational strength and P is projected points

As I stated earlier, these correlations are 0.62 for tight ends, 0.60 for quarterbacks, 0.48 for running backs, and 0.42 for wide receivers.

Thus, if we project a quarterback to score 300 points and a wide receiver to score 200, those value shift to 0.60(300)=180 and 0.42(200)=84, respectively.  Note that those numbers aren’t projected points, but rather weighted values that make comparisons of various players easier.

The primary problem with this method, in my view, is it values the consistent positions too greatly, widening the “scarcity” gap at these spots.  For example, if we assume the 300-point quarterback and 200-point receiver are the top players at their respective positions and that our second-ranked players were projected to score 285 (QB) and 190 (WR), the above formula would change those projections to 171 and 79.

Whereas the second-ranked players were projected to score five percent less than their top-ranked counterparts in the original projections, the new consistency-infused projections have the second quarterback still at five percent behind the top signal-caller, but the second receiver 6.0 percent behind the top pass-catcher.  In effect, multiplying position correlation strength by projected points increases the “scarcity” of the most consistent positions, improperly inflating their worth.

If you want the book, you can buy it here.

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