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Fantasy: Robert Griffin III vs Andrew Luck | The DC Times

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Fantasy: Robert Griffin III vs Andrew Luck

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Jonathan Bales

So Fantasy Football for Smart People was rising steadily, becoming the top fantasy football book on Amazon, when I noticed zero Kindle sales for the past two days. I had been selling about infinity percent more than that, so I knew something was up. Somehow I changed the status of the e-book version from “Live” to “Draft” and it wasn’t selling. There goes literally TENS of dollars.

Anyway, I’m continuing to promote the book through various outlets, and I will continue to post links to my guest posts here. My latest is a comparison of RGIII and Andrew Luck over at Fantasy Football Starters. Make no mistake about it; I think RGIII is set up for the bigger fantasy impact in 2012, but that doesn’t mean I’d take him ahead of Luck. Luck’s average draft position is far lower than that of Griffin, meaning he’s probably a superior value.

On the contrary, here’s the case for RGIII:

Robert Griffin III is a dynamic football player who can beat defenses in a multitude of ways. Some say he’s Michael Vick with more accuracy, and while RGIII’s legs might not stack up, he’s a more complete rookie than Vick.

The primary reason RGIII has a shot at putting up solid fantasy numbers is his running ability. I’ve written in the past about how fantasy owners can leverage quarterback rushing yards into championships; they’re the most predictable stat in all of fantasy football and often overlooked. If Griffin posts just 2,500 passing yards and 15 touchdowns through the air, he would need only 360 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to match a rookie campaign of 3,500 yards and 20 scores for Luck (assuming the former-Stanford Cardinal doesn’t do anything on the ground).

You better believe I’ll be projecting RGIII higher than 360 yards and four scores on the ground, so the margin for error in the passing game is much greater than with Luck.

Check back later today for my latest ‘Running the Numbers’ post.

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