Fantasy Football: Should You Bypass All Rookie Receivers?
Over at FF Today, I analyzed the value of rookie wide receivers. The results were pretty intriguing:
In 2011, a trio of rookie wide receivers—A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and Torrey Smith—finished in the top 23 in fantasy points among all receivers. That doesn’t sound too amazing, does it? Well perhaps you should ramp up your excitement level, because the odds of three rookie wide receivers finishing so high are a lot smaller than you might think.
For years, I used to gamble on rookie wide receivers late in drafts because I thought they possessed a ton of upside. I mean, what wasn’t to love about Chad Jackson in the 13th round? Oh, now wait, don’t answer that.
The truth is that rookie receivers don’t have as high of ceilings as you might believe. Last year was a major aberration in the world of fantasy football. Since 2000, only one other rookie receiver has finished as high as 23rd in wide receiver fantasy points. Can you guess who it was?
Read the full article at FF Today.
Ultimately, rookie receivers simply don’t possess the upside fantasy owners covet in the late rounds. It is extremely rare for them to break out, and no rookie wide receiver since Randy Moss has finished in the top 12 at the position. That stat alone is pretty telling.