Tony Romo 2012 Projections
Over at Dallas Morning News, I just published the second article in my “Breaking Down the ‘Boys” column: a projection of Tony Romo’s 2012 season. I used a combination of regression analysis and Romo’s historical production to determine how successful he might be this year:
Last year, Romo tossed 32.6 passes per game. In 2010 and 2011, Romo averaged 34.4 and 41.2 passes per contest, respectively. Thus, even with the presence of DeMarco Murray, Romo is unlikely to see much of a dip in pass attempts.
The nature of Romo’s passes could change, however. Last season, Romo threw the ball deep (meaning 20-plus yards in the air) on only 6.6 percent of pass plays. That rate ranked him just 37th in the NFL. The lack of deep looks is one reason Romo’s 12.09 yards-per-completion from 2011 is actually below his career mark of 12.46, despite increased efficiency in all other areas of his game.
In 2012, you’re almost assuredly going to see more deep passes from the Cowboys. With Dez Bryant looking like legitimate No. 1 receiver material and thriving on deep passes, you have to think Romo’s deep ball percentage will increase near the 13.5 percent that it was in 2010. Plus, Jason Garrett will likely call for more deep looks simply because Romo has been successful with them. Last year, Romo’s 55.2 percent completion percentage and 125.4 passer rating on throws of 20-plus yards were both second-best in the NFL.
Another good sign for Romo’s career outlook. . .this graph.