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Fantasy Football: Week 1 Waivers and “Sell High” Players

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You’re familiar with my Running the Numbers blog at DallasCowboys.com, but today I published something a bit different at the Cowboys’ team site: a fantasy football article. I took a look at historic Week 1 waiver options and how they perform down the road.

Like I said, most waiver wire pickups, even early in the season, turn out to be busts. I tracked the top 80 Week 1 fantasy performances since 2008 by players who were un-owned in at least two-thirds of ESPN fantasy football leagues. Over those past four seasons, 20 (25 percent) ended up posting starter-quality numbers for their owners (assuming you start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE). Those aren’t great odds.

Read more at DallasCowboys.com.

And in my According to the Data column at RotoWire, I talked about a few “sell high” candidates:

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans

Johnson is obviously an elite talent and you shouldn’t trade him unless you can secure comparable value, but something tells me Johnson isn’t going to keep up his dominant Week 1 performance. To be more specific, that ‘something’ is target rate. Johnson was targeted on 34.5 percent of his pass snaps on Sunday. Even in the 2008 season in which Johnson caught a career-high 115 balls, he was targeted on just 26.9 percent of his pass snaps. The takeaway here is that Johnson probably won’t average 10 targets for the rest of the season, and he surely won’t maintain the 80 percent catch rate he posted on Sunday. Plus, Johnson boasts that star name that will undoubtedly boost his market value in your league.

See the rest at RotoWire.

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