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Running the Numbers: Cowboys-Seahawks Film Study

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At DallasCowboys.com, I analyzed some of the stats I uncovered from the Cowboys’ 27-7 loss in Seattle.

  • I thought the Cowboys should have gone for it on 4th-and-3 at the Seahawks’ 40-yard line just before halftime. I’ve already heard those against the move claim that, if they didn’t convert, they’d be giving Seattle a chance to score before halftime. Well, isn’t the opposite true for the Cowboys? If Dallas wouldn’t want Seattle to have the ball at their own 40-yard line with less than one minute left in the half, why would Seattle want the ’Boys to have a first down inside their 40-yard line?
  • Statistically, the Cowboys should have gone for it if they thought they could convert at least 38 percent of the time. That’s the break-even point where the value of going for it exceeds that of punting on a 4th and 3 at the opponents’ 40-yard line. I checked my numbers, and since 2009, Dallas has converted 22 of their 40 plays of 3rd or 4th and 3. That’s 55 percent.

Read more numbers at DallasCowboys.com.

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