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Is Week-to-Week Consistency an Illusion?

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At RotoWire, I took a look at whether or not certain football players are really more consistent than others.

To track past rates of consistency, I looked at high-performing wide receivers over the past two seasons. Of receivers with more than 60 catches, I examined the top 25 and the bottom 25 in terms of yards-per-reception. My hypothesis was that, if weekly consistency exists and is fairly strong, we’d see players with low yards-per-catch totals have the most consistent play. Those players – think Wes WelkerDanny AmendolaPercy Harvin – typically have a much higher reception rate (and often times more targets) than the big-play threats like DeSean JacksonMike Wallace and Brandon Lloyd.

The fact is that the big-play receivers were actually slightly more likely to have consistent play than the low-YPC receivers. That’s after I adjusted for stat totals (the top 25 in YPC averaged 1,189 yards and 8.96 TDs per season, compared to 942 yards and 5.12 TDs for the bottom 25 in YPC). On average, the big-play receivers posted games with at least 6.0 percent of their final yardage total just over 9.5 times per year. For the low-YPC players – the ones who many consider to be very consistent on a week-to-week basis – the number was just under 9.5. The results are close enough to conclude that weekly receiving consistency, at least in terms of YPC, doesn’t exist.

Read the entire analysis.

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3 Responses to Is Week-to-Week Consistency an Illusion?

  1. Jonny Danger says:

    Loving all the content, Just not enjoying that we have to keep talking about when and how Dallas can become or even attempt to be successful on Offense instead of clamoring about how fing awesome they are ): sigh…. Anyways, I have one more quick question for you as I cant seem to find anyone else with good advice.

    If you recall I have a good problem at QB Rodgers and RG3

    I need a rb bad. All i have to start is Jamaal Charles,Donald Brown and Michael Bush.
    Im stacked at WR and TE With guys like Jimmy Graham, P.Harvin, Eric Decker Julio Jones, Heath Miller, Pettigrew, and Mike Wallace.

    Im thinking of trading : RG3, Michael Bush and either Miller or Graham for Stevan Ridley, Willis McGahee and Brandon Marshall

    This guy desperately needs a QB and TE he has Shcaub and Rivers plus Gates at TE. I wish he had better rbs to deal but he is the one who drafted chris johnson XD. The rest of my league is holding on to players like they are gold and this is the only owner who doesn’t have his head up his ass on perceived value.
    What say you my fantasy guru? Do you believe that is a wise decision or even fair on both ends?

  2. Jonny Danger says:

    PS How is your fantasy League doing or at least one in which you are most proud of? Are you able to post anything about your current standings or your overall team? Thanks Jonathan

  3. Hey Jonny–Yeah, I’d make the deal if you can (somehow) get rid of Miller, but not if you have to deal Graham. My teams are doing well (most of them). I’m in a sad number of leagues so there are ups and downs. I’ll try to post something on my dynasty team next week.

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