Cowboys-Browns Win Probability Graph
At DMN, I examined the win probability graph from the Cowboys’ Week 11 win over the Browns.
Above, I’ve numbered a few important plays.
1: With a 3rd and Goal at the Cowboys’ 10-yard line, Browns quarterback Brandon Weeden found tight end Ben Watson for a touchdown. The play gave Cleveland a 7-0 lead in the middle of the first quarter and increased their win probability from 63 percent (before the play) to 71 percent. Note that the earlier a team scores, the less effect it has on win probability.
2: Down 13-0 in the middle of the third quarter, the Cowboys desperately needed a score. With a 1st and 10 at the Browns’ 23-yard line, the ‘Boys possessed a 19 percent win probability. After a sack and holding penalty, that number dropped down to seven percent before again rising to 15 percent following a Dan Bailey field goal. What’s interesting is that a 1st and 10 just outside of the red zone (but no points) was worth more to the Cowboys than three points in the bank.