The DC Times

A New Way to Look at the Cowboys, NFL, and Fantasy Football

By Jonathan Bales

Fantasy Football: Consistency Correlations Through Week 10

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At RotoWire, I took a look at how my preseason consistency projections have held up through Week 10.

Using the consistency correlations as a guide, I performed a simple regression of stats for each position and projected the final ranks for 2012. The average projected movement for the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions (below) matched up remarkably well with past data.

Today, I want to compare the projections to the results after 10 weeks of the 2012. I’ve collected 2012 ADP information for each position, comparing it to the current rankings (both are point-per-reception). In calculating the results, note that I’ve removed the largest outliers from each sample. Thus, when calculating the average movement for the top five or 10 players at a position, I excluded the two players ranked highest and lowest. For the sake of simplicity, I included only the top five and top 10 players at each position.

Top 5 Quarterbacks
Projected Movement: 1.0
Actual Movement: 2.3
Difference: 1.3
Top 10 Quarterbacks
Projected Movement: 2.7
Actual Movement: 3.6
Difference: 0.9
Top 5 Running Backs
Projected Movement: 1.4
Actual Movement: 4.0
Difference: 2.6
Top 10 Running Backs
Projected Movement: 4.1
Actual Movement: 7.0
Difference: 2.9
Top 5 Wide Receivers
Projected Movement: 5.6
Actual Movement: 9.0
Difference: 3.4
Top 10 Wide Receivers
Projected Movement: 4.2
Actual Movement: 5.0
Difference: 0.8

Check out the entire analysis at RotoWire.

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