The DC Times

A New Way to Look at the Cowboys, NFL, and Fantasy Football

By Jonathan Bales

Fantasy Football: Red Zone Passing Attempts

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At RotoWire, I took a look at how to use regression with red zone passing attempts.

The quarterbacks who lead the league in red-zone passing attempts are Drew Brees (54), Tom Brady (52), and Aaron Rodgers (50). Shocked? Me neither. There’s a pretty strong correlation between the quality of an offense – often led by a premier quarterback – and the number of times they reach the red zone.

A stat that is perhaps a bit flukier, however, is the percentage of red zone passing attempts that come inside the 10-yard line. Is there any good reason Brees has thrown 55.6 percent of his red-zone passes inside the 10-yard line, but Rodgers’ rate is just 32.0 percent? Both teams rely heavily on the pass, and it’s unlikely the Saints are much more likely to get inside the 10-yard line than the Packers.

In using RotoWire’s red-zone data, I researched the percentage of red zone passes for the league’s top-20 fantasy quarterbacks that have come inside the opponent’s 10-yard line.

Aaron Rodgers: 32.0
Drew Brees: 55.6
Robert Griffin III: 47.1
Matt Ryan: 38.3
Peyton Manning: 52.4
Tom Brady: 48.1
Andrew Luck: 34.1
Michael Vick: 37.5
Carson Palmer: 34.7
Ben Roethlisberger: 59.1
Cam Newton: 53.1
Matthew Stafford: 52.1
Andy Dalton: 44.4
Josh Freeman: 36.1
Eli Manning: 52.3
Tony Romo: 28.6
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 25.6
Russell Wilson: 21.6
Christian Ponder: 40.0
Joe Flacco: 13.3

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One Response to Fantasy Football: Red Zone Passing Attempts

  1. Gabe says:

    There’s also a pretty strong correlation with touchdown pass statistics with redzone passing statistics…

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