The DC Times

A New Way to Look at the Cowboys, NFL, and Fantasy Football

By Jonathan Bales

The Sportstradamus: Week 11 NFL Game Picks

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After an average Week 10, my record on the season is 94-51-1 straight up, 71-73-2 against the spread, and 77-67-2 on totals.

Week 11 Picks

@Buffalo 24 Miami 23 (+2.5) (OVER 45)

@Washington 24 (-3.5) Philly 17 (UNDER 43.5)

@Detroit 28 (+3.5) Green Bay 27 (OVER 52)

@Atlanta 28 (-9.5) Arizona 17 (OVER 44)

@Carolina 27 (+1.5) Tampa Bay 24 (OVER 48.5)

@Dallas 24 Cleveland 17 (+8) (UNDER 43.5)

@St. Louis 23 (-3.5) NY Jets 17 (OVER 38.5)

@New England 28 Indy 21 (+9) (UNDER 54)

@Houston 30 Jacksonville 17 (+15.5) (OVER 40.5)

Cincy 20 @Kansas City 17 (+3.5) (UNDER 43.5)

New Orleans 31 Oakland 28 (+5) (OVER 54.5)

@Denver 27 (-7.5) San Diego 17 (UNDER 48.5)

@Pittsburgh 20 (+3.5) Baltimore 17 (UNDER 40.5)

@San Francisco 20 (-5.5) Chicago 10 (UNDER 38.5)

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2 Responses to The Sportstradamus: Week 11 NFL Game Picks

  1. bW says:

    Hey JB,
    Whats your thinking with Det over GB? That one surprised me.

  2. Hey bW..you may have noticed my strategy when picking straight up is extremely conservative. I don’t take dogs just to pick differently..I generally pick just one or two a week and that’s because I really think they’ll win. I have more this week, including Detroit..when I look at the teams, I naturally feel like Green Bay is superior. Statistically, though, the two are almost identical. Nearly the exact same success rates on runs/passes on both offense and defense. Detroit actually has averaged 6.6 net YPA on offense, compared to only 6.3 net YPA for Green Bay. I’ve found net YPA to be the most predictive stat (by far) in regards to team W/L percentage. Defensively, the Lions have actually been the ninth-best team in the league in terms of net YPA allowed…and Green Bay is next. These are really two extremely similar teams, but one will obviously be downgraded because too much emphasis is placed on current record..IMO it should be Detroit -0.5…so I’ll take Detroit at home.

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