Cowboys’ Playoff Odds
At Dallas Morning News, I broke down the Cowboys’ chances of making the playoffs after their big win in Cincinnati.
If we assume the remaining expected winning percentage for each team is 50 percent—likely not far off from reality—the Cowboys have a 12.5 percent chance to pull off three straight wins. Of course, the Giants would own that same probability, and the Cowboys need the G-Men to lose, and preferably fast. Luckily, the Giants are probably going to go down at least one more time; the probability of them losing at least one more game, given a 50 percent win expectation in each, is 87.5 percent.
Thus, the Cowboys’ chances of going undefeated and seeing the Giants lose at least one more game are 12.5 percent x 87.5 percent = 10.9 percent—not exactly stellar, but certainly better than two weeks ago.
Believe it or not, the Cowboys’ path to the NFC East crown is actually more likely with a 2-1 finish and 1-2 Giants’ finish. The odds of the Giants losing two more games and the Cowboys winning two of three, one of which is in Washington, is actually 16.8 percent. It’s somewhat surprising, but a 1-2 or 2-1 finish in a three-game stretch is always more likely than 0-3 or 3-0.
Check it out at DMN.