2013 NFL Draft: Aggregate Big Board
One thing I’ve been working on in the past couple weeks is a model to predict the NFL draft. I just posted an explanation of the system and the first board at Dallas News.
2013 NFL Draft
This year, I plan to use the same methodology in creating 2012 NFL Draft big boards and mock drafts, aggregating individual expert opinions to create a single consensus. I tracked the reliability of various draft experts in past years, assigning each of them an accuracy score. That score dictated how heavily I weighed their current rankings in my 2013 aggregate big board. As Silver showed, the overall “wisdom of the crowds” should be at least modestly more accurate than most individual opinions, meaning the big boards I compile leading up to the draft should reflect the “consensus” fairly well. The model uses rankings from 15 experts.
It’s important to note that these rankings will change, perhaps dramatically, as April approaches. However, the value of creating a model now is that many of the boards differ from one another quite a bit. That can actually be advantageous because it means there’s probably not as much group thinking taking place, i.e. experts haven’t yet allowed the opinions of others to affect their own in a major way.
Without further ado. . .
2013 Aggregate Big Board
- 1. Jarvis Jones, DE, Georgia
- 2. Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
- 3. Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
- 4. Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
- 5. Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
- 6. DeMarcus Milliner, CB, Alabama
- 7. Manti Te’o, ILB, Notre Dame
- 8. Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
- 9. Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU
- 10. Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
- 11. Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
- 12. Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
- 13. Jonathan Cooper, G, UNC
- 14. Keenan Allen, WR, Cal
- 15. Sam Montgomery, DE/OLB, LSU
- 16. Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
- 17. Johnthan Banks, CB Mississippi State
- 18. Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon
- 19. Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
- 20. Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
- 21. Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
- 22. Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
- 23. Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor
- 24. Jonathan Jenkins, DT, Georgia
- 25. Alex Okafor, DE, Texas
- 26. Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
- 27. Matt Barkley, QB, USC
- 28. Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
- 29. Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
- 30. Barrett Jones, C, Alabama
- 31. Giovani Bernard, RB, UNC
- 32. Sylvester Williams, DT, UNC
First off, understand that this is a representation of consensus big boards, not mock drafts. As such, you can bet that the results have a player like quarterback Geno Smith ranked lower than where he’ll actually get drafted. However, if our goal is to assess consensus value and not necessarily project certain players to specific teams, then the board should be a decent representation of that.