The DC Times

A New Way to Look at the Cowboys, NFL, and Fantasy Football

By Jonathan Bales

Running the Numbers: What is Tony Romo worth?

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At DallasCowboys.com, I tried to predict how much money Romo will get in his next contract.

Below, I plotted the top-paid quarterbacks’ EPA/play in the season prior to their big payday, along with the average per-year value of their contract.

The correlation is pretty staggering. Whether they know it or not, organizations around the league are paying quarterbacks at a pretty predictable rate that coincides remarkably with EPA/play. The black line in the graph represents the average salary quarterbacks should be paid based on their efficiency and the compensation of comparable passers. Quarterbacks who generated around 0.07 EPA/play have earned an average of just under $10 million per year, for example, while those who posted in the range of 0.21 EPA/play have hauled in just under $16 million per year.

It’s really amazing how well the majority of the biggest quarterback contracts have coincided with each player’s EPA/play. The biggest outlier is Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez. He generated exactly zero EPA/play in 2011, but the Jets still handed him a five-year, $58.3 million contract before the start of the 2012 season.

Read it all at the team site.

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