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Fantasy Football: A Case for Doug Martin as the No. 1 Player in Fantasy Football

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At rotoViz, I broke down why Doug Martin deserves consideration to be the top player off of the board inf fantasy drafts.

Elite Running Back Comps

Below, I charted the ceilings for the top six backs in terms of current ADP.

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Note that the chart ranged from 18 to 24 PPG, so the expected production for the top six backs is similar. Again, Peterson’s ceiling is likely higher than what’s listed here, but it’s still interesting to see how the backs’ upside coincides with age. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that Lynch, coming off of a season with very similar numbers to Martin, possesses the lowest ceiling of the bunch heading into his age 27 season. In terms of upside alone, you have to wonder why Lynch is getting drafted ahead of Martin or Richardson.

That question intensifies when we examine the floors for the backs.

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Here, the value of the young backs shines. Despite rushing for only 950 yards at 3.56 YPC in his rookie season, Richardson joins Martin as having the “safest” historical comps. That’s not surprising when you consider that running backs typically peak in efficiency right when they come into the league, and it’s a gradual decline from there. When you have young backs at the peak of their games and you put them in high-volume situations without much competition—as is the case with both Martin and Richardson—you have the makings of low-risk/high-reward players.

Check out the rest of my post and the RB Similarity Scores App at rotoViz.

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