The DC Times

A New Way to Look at the Cowboys, NFL, and Fantasy Football

By Jonathan Bales

Fantasy Football: Ceilings, Floors for Elite Tight Ends

Subscribe to The DC Times
Never miss a post again!

At rotoViz, I used the tight end similarity app to generate ceiling and floor projections for the draft’s top four tight ends.

I’ve already used the apps to generate ceiling and floor projections for the draft’s elite quarterbacksrunning backs, and wide receivers. As a refresher, the apps provide 20 “comparables” for each player, giving you an idea of the range of potential outcomes a player might experience. To calculate ceilings and floors, I’ve tracked the numbers for each player’s top four and bottom four comps, respectively, in each statistical category. In doing this, we can get a really strong sense of the risk and reward surrounding each player.

At the tight end position, two players—Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham—stand out above the rest with ADPs of 1.11 and 2.03, respectively. A tier below, Hernandez checks in at third at 3.08, and Jason Witten is getting drafted fourth at 4.02.

Below, I graphed the potential upside for those top four tight ends based on their top comps. I used PPR scoring.

clip_image002

Not surprisingly, Gronkowski and Graham lead the pack. Gronkowski’s upside in particular is outstanding, as his peak season is 1.7 points per game higher than Graham’s. More important, the numbers seem to confirm my suspicion that Hernandez isn’t necessarily a high-upside player. His top comps have posted 1.1 points per game lower than Witten—a soon-to-be 31-year old.

Worse, Hernandez doesn’t possess a very high floor, either, i.e. he’s not really a safe pick.

clip_image004

Again, Hernandez checks in below Witten. The production of his bottom four comps is just 77 percent of that for Graham’s comps.

The whole article is at rotoViz.

Like this post? Share it with others:
  • Facebook
  • MySpace
  • Reddit
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • del.icio.us
  • Digg
  • email
  • Google Bookmarks
  • Netvibes
  • StumbleUpon
  • Technorati

No related posts.

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>