Fantasy Football: Ceilings, Floors for Elite Tight Ends
I’ve already used the apps to generate ceiling and floor projections for the draft’s elite quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. As a refresher, the apps provide 20 “comparables” for each player, giving you an idea of the range of potential outcomes a player might experience. To calculate ceilings and floors, I’ve tracked the numbers for each player’s top four and bottom four comps, respectively, in each statistical category. In doing this, we can get a really strong sense of the risk and reward surrounding each player.
At the tight end position, two players—Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham—stand out above the rest with ADPs of 1.11 and 2.03, respectively. A tier below, Hernandez checks in at third at 3.08, and Jason Witten is getting drafted fourth at 4.02.
Below, I graphed the potential upside for those top four tight ends based on their top comps. I used PPR scoring.
Not surprisingly, Gronkowski and Graham lead the pack. Gronkowski’s upside in particular is outstanding, as his peak season is 1.7 points per game higher than Graham’s. More important, the numbers seem to confirm my suspicion that Hernandez isn’t necessarily a high-upside player. His top comps have posted 1.1 points per game lower than Witten—a soon-to-be 31-year old.
Worse, Hernandez doesn’t possess a very high floor, either, i.e. he’s not really a safe pick.
Again, Hernandez checks in below Witten. The production of his bottom four comps is just 77 percent of that for Graham’s comps.
The whole article is at rotoViz.