Fantasy Football: Jumping on the Brandon Marshall Bandwagon
Is there a bandwagon for Brandon Marshall yet? If not, I’m starting it. At rotoViz, I took a look at the ceilings and floors for the top six wide receivers in fantasy drafts.
Below, I charted the ceilings for the top half-dozen wide receivers in terms of current ADP—the only six who are getting selected in the first two rounds. These are the ceiling projections for each player based on their top four comparables in each statistical category for PPR leagues—receptions, yards, and touchdowns. I threw out any comps who didn’t participate in at least six games.
It’s not too surprising to see Calvin Johnson with the highest projected ceiling. In reality, his ceiling is probably even higher than listed because it’s difficult to find comps for a player coming off of a 122/1,964/5 season.
While A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, and Dez Bryant all possess similar upside, it’s interesting to see Brandon Marshall towering above them with a ceiling of 21.5 points per game. Marshall’s 118 receptions in 2012 don’t hurt, but he’d still be the clear No. 2 if his peak receptions per game—currently at 6.69—were closer to the average of the group (which is barely less at 6.57).
Marshall’s ceiling as a highly-targeted No. 1 option with Jay Cutler at quarterback is probably higher than that for Thomas and Jones, at least, simply because they have to share looks with other talented receivers. Jones in particular probably doesn’t have the sort of upside everyone who is drafting him in the middle of the second round is expecting. Unless the Falcons completely shift their game plan to emphasize Jones over Roddy White and defenses tailor their schemes to allow Jones to see more single-coverage, he might not have top three potential.
Since all of these receivers are currently getting selected in the first two rounds, it might be more valuable to examine their floors. The easiest way to acquire value in the first few rounds is to minimize risk; everyone has awesome upside, so it’s just as easy to hit a home run by simply trying to make contact as it is by swinging for the fences.
Quite surprisingly, Marshall has a higher floor than each of the other top-rated receivers. Again, Johnson’s numbers are deflated due to a lack of truly similar comps. You could say he’ll see increased defensive attention coming off of one of the premiere seasons in NFL history, but how much more coverage could he really see?
Check out the whole article at rotoViz.