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Running the Numbers: How Romo’s Contract Will Be Affected By Flacco’s

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At DallasCowboys.com, I analyzed Tony Romo’s future contract extension in light of Joe Flacco’s record-breaking deal.

Joe Flacco: The Most Overpaid Player in Football?

Below, I charted the EPA/play for some of the top-paid quarterbacks in recent years. The Flacco deal is in red.

For the most part, teams have paid quarterbacks in a manner consistent with their EPA/play, whether they know it or not. Most of the blue dots in the graph fall near the black line, the “true” worth of quarterbacks based on their market value.

However, you can see that the Flacco contract is listed way above the line. Players listed above the black line are “overpaid” based on their EPA/play and past quarterback contracts. Flacco’s location on the graph isn’t a good thing for the Cowboys or anyone else trying to sign a quarterback since those deals will use Flacco’s as a framework. In effect, Flacco has reset the value for quarterbacks.

But guess what? Flacco’s EPA/play wasn’t even close to being worthy of $20.1 million per year. Actually, Flacco’s 2012 efficiency (0.15 EPA/play) was just one-hundredth of a point better than Romo’s. The obvious rebuttal would be that Flacco won the Super Bowl, and rightfully so, but I included Flacco’s postseason numbers. Flacco certainly ramped up his level of play in January, but that fact is accounted for in the data. In the regular season alone, Flacco’s EPA/play was just 0.10.

Check out the whole post at the team site.

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