Why Draft Measurables Really Do Matter
At DallasCowboys.com, I explained why I think many (but not all) draft measurables matter when scouting players.
In many ways, drafting is like playing poker. If you watch the World Series of Poker on ESPN, you know that any regular Joe (or Chris) can take down much superior players; it’s part of the randomness inherent to poker. I could play a hand completely incorrectly, monumentally decreasing my chances of winning, and still beat out the world’s top professionals with a lucky card. Over the long run, though, my luck would run out. If I continued to play sub-optimal strategies, I’d eventually lose my money.
The same is true in the NFL. If you ignore the percentages, you can still hit on really good players, even a Jerry Rice. But it’s a poor long-term strategy. The teams that most consistently draft based on “gut feel” instead of quantifiable evidence are continually among those at the bottom of the NFL barrel, and no single piece of evidence to the contrary – yes, even a Hall of Fame receiver – can dispel that notion. Dismissing the importance of quantifiable measurements because of an isolated instance or two would be the equivalent of always raising in poker with a 2 and a 7 because “hey, it worked once.”
Check it out at the team site.