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2013 NFL Mock Draft, Version 2.0

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At Dallas News, I published my second mock draft of the year.

A lot of analysts consider mock drafts to be useless, but I disagree. In creating realistic mock drafts, we’re “playing out” different scenarios that could take place at the end of the month. It’s very much the same as software that simulates thousands of football games; one simulation doesn’t mean much, but 10,000 simulations of the same event are meaningful. When we combine various mock drafts, we can gain insights regarding the range of potential outcomes on draft night.

In my first mock, I used a combination of team needs and my aggregate big board to project picks. Note that my mock drafts are in no way a reflection of my views on talent; I have three quarterbacks in the first round, for example, but I think there’s just one true first-round quarterback talent in this draft. Instead, the mock contains my views on where I’d anticipate players getting selected.

Finally, note that all of the highlighted names are players I’ve scouted thus far. Click on the links to read my analysis.

2013 NFL Mock Draft, Version 2.0

1. Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

The Chiefs said they’ve narrowed down their possible choices to four, and Joeckel figures to be one of them.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

We haven’t heard anything about the Jaguars looking for a quarterback; that might be evidence that they’re searching for one.

3. Oakland Raiders: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

Floyd isn’t a favorite of mine, but he seems like a top five lock at this point.

4. Philadelphia Eagles: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

The Eagles desperately need help on the offensive line. Either of the elite guards could be in play here as well.

5. Detroit Lions: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

The consensus top cornerback on the board won’t make it out of the top 10.

6. Cleveland Browns: Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon

Jordan is the top overall player on my board and he’d be excellent value for the Browns.

7. Arizona Cardinals: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

The closer we get to the draft, the more apparent it is that the Cowboys won’t have a shot at the draft’s top three offensive tackles.

8. Buffalo Bills: E.J. Manuel, QB, Florida State

I’ve had Manuel rated as my No. 2 quarterback for a long time, and there are some reports that he could be a top 15 guy. I don’t think Buffalo will want to wait on securing their quarterback of the future.

9. New York Jets: Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU

With Ansah falling to the Jets in this scenario, the pick is a no-brainer.

10. Tennessee Titans: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

I originally had Washington’s Desmond Trufant here, but Rhodes seems like the more likely candidate to be the second cornerback off of the board.

See picks 11-32 here.

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