Cowboys’ Potential Draft Picks: WRs Da’Rick Rogers and Josh Boyce
I recently broke down two potential wide receiver picks for the Cowboys later this month. At NBC, I posted a scouting report on TCU receiver Josh Boyce:
The best predictor of future success is past success. NFL teams way too often overlook players’ college production, particularly at skill positions. The stats for wide receivers in major conferences are actually more strongly correlated with NFL success than just about anything. When we see a player who was mildly productive but never caught more than 66 passes, 998 yards, or nine touchdowns in a season, we have to ask ‘why?’
One reason we haven’t seen a ton of production from Boyce—at least not what we’d expect from a high draft pick—is that he’s just 5-11, 204 pounds. If you recall, I showed that there’s a very strong relationship between height and success for NFL wide receivers. Short, quick receivers can help to move offenses up the field, but they really have a difficult time in the red zone.
See it all at NBC.
And at Dallas News, I argued that the ‘Boys need a big receiver like Da’Rick Rogers:
After publishing my first Cowboys-only mock draft, some of you seemed surprised that I projected a wide receiver to the Cowboys. That one was Elon’s Aaron Mellette in the sixth round, but I think team could target a wide receiver even earlier than that. It’s hardly a necessity, but the need for a third wide receiver with size is underrated. Dwayne Harris and Cole Beasley are fine, but what happens if Miles Austin or Dez Bryant go down? Dallas would either need to force Harris into a position on the outside where he’s not suited or start a really sub-optimal wide receiver.
On top of that, the third receiver played a major role in the Cowboys’ offense last year; the ‘Boys lined up with at least three receivers on 56 percent of their offensive snaps. Everyone knows the Cowboys need a backup running back, but the third receiver is arguably a lot more important. Kevin Ogletree, who didn’t start a single game in 2012, played nearly 100 more snaps than Felix Jones, who started seven games. And that’s Kevin Ogletree—hardly an elite option.
When the Cowboys use three receivers, Miles Austin moves into the slot. He gives the team flexibility to equip themselves with the best possible third receiver, regardless of his skill set. There’s no reason to think that player needs to be a small, shifty slot receiver. Based on historical success at the position, that player should actually have elite size.
Today’s feature—Tennessee Tech’s Da’Rick Rogers—has the potential to be a superstar in the NFL. Currently rated in the top 40 on my latest big board, Rogers transferred from Tennessee after a productive sophomore season of 67 catches, 1,040 yards, and nine touchdowns.
See the scouting report at DMN.