100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 2: Money Management
For 100 days leading up to the 2013 football season, I’ll post a small sample from one of my three fantasy football books. This is Day 2.
You ever commit to something and then, soon after it begins, you realize you should have just shut the hell up? I’m not saying that’s how I feel on Day 2 of this overambitious “100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days” idea, but I’m not saying it’s not how I feel either.
Anyway, today’s sample is from my book How to Cash in on the Future of the Game:
Imagine a magical fantasy football genie has come to you and offered an enticing proposition: a guaranteed 80 percent winning percentage in weekly fantasy football. Um, sign me up. The offer comes with one caveat, though; you must bet 25 percent of your bankroll on each team, and you need to participate in a minimum of 500 leagues. Do you take the offer?
While an 80 percent winning percentage is likely unattainable over the long-run even for an expert owner, there’s still no way you can take the genie’s offer. Even with just a 20 percent chance of losing a game, it’s going to happen. And occasionally, it will happen twice in a row. And once in a while, you’ll lose three consecutive games. And, wait for it. . .over any four-game stretch (even with an incredible 80 percent expectation), you actually have a 0.16 percent chance of losing all four games—as in once in every 625 games, on average.
Would you go broke after the first four games? Probably not. But would it eventually happen? Yes. You’re basically playing Russian roulette with your bankroll when, if your goal is long-term profitability, you should take chance out of the equation as much as possible. Now consider that a more realistic expected long-term winning percentage of 60 percent would result in four straight losses at 16 times the rate of an 80 percent winning percentage, and you can see how money management starts to become the backbone of your weekly fantasy football strategy.