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Running the Numbers: Projecting Escobar, Williams, and Randle in 2013

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My latest “Running the Numbers” entry is a projection of the Cowboys’ skill position rookies. Here’s a preview on Williams:

WR Terrance Williams

The selection of Williams was intriguing for Dallas because his production will likely be inversely connected to that of Escobar in 2013. Since the two won’t be on the field together too often unless a starter gets injured, Williams’ production will increase as Escobar’s declines, and vice versa.

The ’Boys probably want to see Escobar on the field more than Williams simply because that would mean the team is winning more often. Last year, the Cowboys were forced into using at least three receivers on 56 percent of their snaps. That won’t happen again this year. Barring injury, it’s more likely that Williams will play around 45 percent of the Cowboys’ snaps. That would probably put him in the range of about 475 total plays.

Historically, Romo has targeted his No. 3 receiver on around 12 percent of snaps with at least three receivers on the field. There’s no reason to think that rate will change much in 2013, giving Williams 57 targets. No. 3 receivers often haul in a high percentage of their looks, usually around 65 percent. Williams’ rate could actually be a bit lower since he figures to see a lot of downfield targets. His catch rate will probably hover around 60 percent, but he could easily average 16.0 YPR. Those figures would give him 34 receptions for 544 yards. Like Escobar, Williams could help Dallas in the red zone as early as this year. With 34 catches, Williams should be able to find the end zone at least four times.

  • Final Projection: 34 receptions, 544 yards, 4 TDs

To the guy who commented “I have cut and pasted this idiots projection numbers, and saved them on a word document, to later review after the season”….

Please do. Maybe you could submit your projections for the players and we’ll see who is closer at the end of the year. Sound good?

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