100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 18: Weekly Projections
Whether you play traditional season-long fantasy football or participate in daily leagues, weekly projections are absolutely crucial. I think there are lots of outstanding resources available to help you project players each week, the most useful of which might very well be the Vegas lines. From my book Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Cash in on the Future of the Game:
Projections: A Trip to Vegas
Making projections is really difficult. There’s a lot that goes into it—assessing a player’s talent, his projected workload, the defense, the weather, and so on—and figuring that stuff out is time-consuming. Whenever possible, you want to let experts do as much of the work for you as possible.
There are no experts out there who understand football better than the guys who set the lines in Vegas. They have millions of dollars on the line each week, so it’s in their best interest to make sure the spreads they set are as strong as possible. And they are. Over large sample sizes, the point spreads hold up, making it really difficult to beat them on a consistent basis.
In analyzing Vegas game lines and totals, you can get a really good sense of how a contest will unfold. When the guys in Vegas set the over/under on the Pats-Broncos game at 51 points, that’s meaningful and useful information. Further, they break down the totals to be team-specific; in that hypothetical game, they might have the Pats’ total at 27 points and the Broncos at 24. With the click of a button, we’ve uncovered really accurate projections for the final score of each team.
I started off this section discussing the Vegas lines because they can be a really powerful tool. If you have a solid grasp of who will win a game and how many points they’ll score, you’ll also have a good idea of how fantasy points will be dispersed, at least among teams.
In the book, I have all kinds of advice on how to use the Vegas lines and even the props to project players. You can buy How to Cash in on the Future of the Game for Kindle, as a PDF, or in paperback.