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100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 20: The Key to Efficient Drafting

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Heading into the rotoViz dynasty league start-up draft, my goal was actually to target older players. The reason is that I knew this 14-team league would be perhaps the most competitive I’ve ever been in, meaning the smart owners would target youth. I figured a contrarian strategy emphasizing current production would work out because some owners might overemphasize youth.

It didn’t work out. Every time I went to pick, I had younger players rated higher or equal to older counterparts. The value just wasn’t there. Outside of Drew Brees, all of my starters are well under 30 (most in their early-20s). Actually, I don’t even think I have much of a chance to compete this year. With Lamar Miller, Denarius Moore, Michael Floyd, Alshon Jeffery, Coby Fleener, Johnathan Franklin, and Aaron Dobson among those on my roster, I might be a year or two away.

Anyway, the point is that you really need to understand the thoughts of other owners in your league to draft efficiently. I’ve discussed this before, but it’s really important because the beliefs of those in your league determine ADP. Basically, it boils down to this sort of argument.

1. To acquire value, you need to employ a contrarian draft strategy–emphasizing traits others are overlooking.

2. To employ a contrarian draft strategy, you necessarily need to know the general consensus of opinions within your league.

Conclusion: To acquire value, you necessarily need to know the general consensus of opinions within your league.

And there’s $180,000 of Philosophy classes at work. Now go buy the books and my 2013 draft package so I can recoup some of those funds.

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