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100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 21: Avoid Marshawn Lynch?

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At RotoWire, the guys chose two undervalued and two overvalued players for 2013. Here’s my section:

Jonathan Bales

SLEEPERLe’Veon Bell
RB – Pittsburgh Steelers

Bell has a chance to see a massive workload as the featured back in Pittsburgh’s offense. His primary competition is merely Jonathan Dwyer, so it would be surprising if the Steelers’ second-round selection didn’t see the bulk of the carries in his rookie year. Bell, who caught 67 passes the last two seasons at Michigan State, can also add value as a receiver.

SLEEPERJustin Blackmon
WR – Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, Blackmon will start the 2013 season with a four-game suspension. But since that announcement was made, Blackmon’s ADP has plummeted more than four rounds. That’s way too far for a player who caught 64 passes for 865 yards as a rookie despite very shaky quarterback play. Blackmon’s suspension hurts, but it’s not a death blow to his stock; remember, you don’t lose all of Blackmon’s points for the first four games of the season, but rather his points minus the points for a replacement receiver. Despite his knuckle-headedness, he’s a top-25 WR at the cost of a top-50 one.

BUSTMarshawn Lynch
RB – Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks offense has revolved around Lynch, but that might change in the near future. For starters, the team will rely more heavily on second-year quarterback Russell Wilson, especially with his new weapon in Percy Harvin. On top of that, Seattle has two really talented backs on the bench in Robert Turbin and Christine Michael, ages 23 and 22, respectively. Compare that with Lynch, whose best days are probably behind him as he enters his age 27 season.

BUSTAlfred Morris
RB – Washington Redskins

A lot of Morris’ success last year came at the hands of Robert Griffin, however, whose rushing prowess opened up running room for Morris on read-option plays. In reality, Morris is a below-average running back with sub-par speed who is extremely dependent on his offensive coordinator and quarterback for his numbers. That’s not the kind of running back I typically target, nor is it one you should seek at his current inflated cost.

I feel like I’m going to have to make a serious effort to not take on way too much exposure to Gordon and Blackmon this year. If you recall, I also wrote this post at rotoViz explaining why I have a man crush on Gordon and Blackmon, especially since they were suspended.

I have both guys rated well ahead of their ADP in my 2013 Draft Package.

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