100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 4: Why Daily Fantasy Beats Sports Betting
I’m a big believer in the future of daily fantasy sports; I think as more and more people trickle into the game, it will represent a major investment opportunity for long-term winners. And a superior investment than sports betting, too. From my new book Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Cash in on the Future of the Game:
There’s a pretty widespread perception that when a sportsbook sets lines, it does so based on public opinion. That is, they care less about how the game will turn out and more about taking in even money on each side of every game. That’s not actually true, however.
At one time when sports bettors were pretty square as a whole, sportsbooks could get away with setting a line based entirely on public perception simply because there were very few wise guys who could beat those lines. In a world filled with analytics and in-depth stat analysis, though, the average sports bettor has improved. A lot. Now when the brilliant minds in Vegas set lines, they do so primarily based on reality; if they set a weak line, wise guys will quickly exploit it and the squares will follow. Thus, the nature of sports betting has changed. Vegas might post a weak line now and again, but for the most part, their lines properly reflect the quality of the participating teams, meaning you have to outsmart them to win.