100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 33: Are rookie quarterbacks the new rookie running backs?
Yet another post from Fantasy Football for Smart People: What the Experts Don’t Want You to Know:
In 2012, the trend has continued with Robert Griffin III (sixth) and Andrew Luck (ninth). Heck, even Russell Wilson finished No. 11. The question for fantasy owners is whether or not the recent rise of the rookie quarterback is a natural progression of the position—one that has arisen from colleges preparing rookies to play in the NFL immediately—or simply the result of a unique group of select passers finding unusual first-year success over just a two-year period.
In terms of any sort of trend, the improvement in rookie quarterback production has been dramatic, not a gradual increase.
From 2004 to 2010, there was no consistent trend among rookie quarterback fantasy production. The top rookie quarterback over that period was Vince Young with a ninth-place finish in 2006. On average, though, the best rookie quarterback each season averaged just a 25th-place finish, meaning first-year quarterbacks weren’t even really worthy of a selection in redraft leagues.