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100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 34: Ranking the Running Backs By Risk | The DC Times

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100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 34: Ranking the Running Backs By Risk

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At rotoViz, I broke down the running backs in terms of inherent volatility.

In my Fantasy Football for Smart People book series, I advocate maximizing value by seeking safety and scarcity early in drafts, then searching for upside later. That was the general idea behind my early-March article suggesting that Bucs running back Doug Martin deserves consideration as the No. 1 player off of the board in PPR formats. I said it. I meant it. But I didn’t act on it, because I drew the top overall pick in a subsequent mock draft and opted for Adrian Peterson.

But since that time, the Doug Martin bandwagon has gained traction. Recently, Shawn Siegele pointed out that Martin posted the third-most yards from scrimmage for any rookie running back in NFL history, behind only Edgerrin James and Eric Dickerson, with Clinton Portis, Marshall Faulk, and Barry Sanders rounding out the top six. And no one touches Martin on the Running Back Similarity Score app.

Take a look at the median PPR projections for the top 25 non-rookie running backs in terms of current ADP:

Running Back Median Projection
Doug Martin 20
Ray Rice 17.5
C.J. Spiller 15.6
DeMarco Murray 15.6
Marshawn Lynch 14.8
Trent Richardson 14.8
Arian Foster 14.3
Alfred Morris 13.9
Adrian Peterson 13.4
LeSean McCoy 13.2
Matt Forte 12.5
Stevan Ridley 12.2
Chris Johnson 11.7
Jamaal Charles 11.7
Ahmad Bradshaw 11.7
Ryan Mathews 11
Frank Gore 10.9
Darren McFadden 10.5
Reggie Bush 10.3
Steven Jackson 9.5
Maurice Jones-Drew 8.6
Darren Sproles 8.3
Lamrar Miller 6
David Wilson 5.7
Chris Ivory 4.

The rest of the analysis, including the risk ratings, is at rotoViz.

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