100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 40: Jimmy Graham and Opportunity Cost
Earlier today, I was doing some work on the value of Jimmy Graham. This wasn’t specifically meant for an article; I was just doing it because I’m a serious loser. I wanted to see if Graham’s scarcity can make up for the opportunity cost of drafting him in the early portion of the second round. I decided to quickly write down my thoughts, which I posted in this article on Graham, scarcity, and opportunity cost.
In short, although Graham is scarce, there’s a hefty price to pay to acquire his services. Based on current ADP, that price is an early second-round pick. So the question is, what’s the opportunity cost of drafting Graham, and is it worth it?
Let’s examine this question by playing out four different draft scenarios, only one of which includes the selection of Graham:
- Draft 1: RB, TE, RB, WR, WR
- Draft 2: WR, RB, RB, WR, TE
- Draft 3: WR, WR, RB, RB, TE
- Draft 4: RB, WR, WR, RB, TE
So in each draft, we’ve selected two running backs, two wide receivers and one tight end. In three of the four drafts, we’ve waited until the fifth round to draft a tight end. We’ll assume we’re picking with the 10th overall selection in a 12-team league. We’ll also assume an efficient draft such that every pick is made based on ADP. In such a world, the results of each draft would be as follows:
- Draft 1: RB9, TE1, RB20, WR13, WR22
- Draft 2: WR2, RB11, RB20, WR13, TE4
- Draft 3: WR2, WR4, RB20, RB23, TE4
- Draft 4: RB9, WR4, WR11, RB23, TE4
Read the final projections right here.