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100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 44: Composite Rankings

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I’m a big believer in a “wisdom of the crowds” approach to drafting, but under two conditions:

1) that wisdom comes from experts, and

2) their opinions are as independent of one another as possible.

At RotoWire, I looked at the guys’ rankings, then compared them to current ADP.

We recently released our Top 200 Overall Composite Rankings. I think there’s a ton of value in aggregate rankings because they factor out individual biases. Generally, such an approach — “wisdom of the crowds”— will beat individual rankings. Each of the guys put in lots of work to generate their individual rankings, yet chances are the average of their rankings will outperform most of them on an individual basis. That’s not a knock on the RotoWire experts at all – they’re some of the best in the business – but it’s just a likelihood given that aggregates typically beat out individuals.

Let’s look at the rankings of Drew Brees, for example. Two of the experts – Mark Stopa and Kevin Payne – have Brees ranked 21st overall, while Luke Hoover has him all the way up at No. 13 and Chris Liss has him down at No. 31. Luke and Chris could certainly be correct in their rankings – perhaps they know something the others don’t – but it’s more likely Brees will fall between the spots where Luke and Chris have him ranked. Brees actually checks in at No. 21 overall – right where Mark and Kevin ranked him. Since the rankings were formulated independently of one another, Brees is most likely to check in close to that mean.

Click here for the direct expert/ADP comparison of the top 40.

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