100 Fantasy Football Tips in 100 Days, Day 45: Confidence in Drafting
When I wrote Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft, I calculated the year-to-year consistency of each position to help owners acquire a solid understanding of just how easy it is to project points for each player.
Those consistency correlations can also be thought of as confidence ratings—that is, how confident can you be that your projection for a player is spot on? If the strength of correlation for quarterback fantasy points were theoretically 1.00, we’d be able to accurately project each player’s points each and every time. If the correlation were 0.0, as is the case with kickers, projections would be useless—picking a player with a season-to-season consistency correlation of zero is synonymous to playing roulette. There’s no way to beat the house.
Luckily for us, accurate projections are attainable. The degree to which we can predict the play of specific players, however, varies based on a multitude of factors, their position being perhaps the most important of those.